← 归档索引 · 2026-10-22 10:57 · 动态市场扫描-10:30
# Cron Job: 动态市场扫描-10:30
**Job ID:** 0dcde44e6c8e
**Run Time:** 2026-10-22 10:57:59
**Schedule:** 30 10 * * 1-5
**Prompt Characters:** 50129
## Prompt
[IMPORTANT: The user has invoked the "taoge-four-layer-funnel" skill, indicating they want you to follow its instructions. The full skill content is loaded below.]
---
name: taoge-four-layer-funnel
description: "涛哥四层漏斗——有主力+可持续+找介入+持有管理。收到个股/板块分析请求时加载，按四层漏斗逐层判定。"
tags: [主力, 买点, 漏斗, 持仓管理, 涛哥体系]
created: 2026-09-10
---
# 涛哥四层漏斗分析框架
> 来源：老板2026-09-10对涛哥直播深度学习后构建
> 原则：从"找便宜股"切换成"在不低的位置找安全的行为结构"
## 前置铁律
```
R0: 大盘没稳 → 全部信号降一级
判断标准：深成指近3日是否止跌+止跌日放量
两个条件都满足 → 看板块/个股
任一不满足 → 只看大盘
```
---
## 第1层：确认"有主力"（不问价格问行为）
四查清单：
```
查1 低点建仓证据
条件：波段低点量价异常≥3次
标准：vol > MA20(vol) * 1.3 且 pct_chg > 0
判定：次数/数量 > 板块均值 = 主力最喜欢
查2 高点无逃跑
条件：波段高点卖出量 < 建仓量 20%
60-70% = 趋势转跌（逃跑）
20-60% = 调整（分歧）
<20% = 中继（洗盘）
查3 吸售状态
条件：下跌轨迹由快变慢（跌幅递减）
表现：连续阴线实体缩小+量缩
含义：老主力不舍得卖=抛压枯竭
查4 板块验证
条件：多板块主力分布+抱团 = 趋势前置
警告：单一细分独走 = 警惕（可能是个股行为非主力行为）
```
**通过标准**：查1+查2同时通过 → 进入第2层
**否决**：查2判定"逃跑" → 直接退出
---
## 第2层：过滤"可持续"（有主力≠能持续）
```
判1 共识五阶段定位
① 聪明钱建仓期 → 吃鱼身（最佳介入）
② 机构进来不走期 → 吃鱼腹（可介入）
③ 机构加速拉升期 → 鱼尾上半（轻仓跟）
④ 散户共识期 → 鱼尾下半（反向指标，减仓）
⑤ 主力出货期 → 不参与
判2 内生动力三要素
需求旺 ✓
供给不足 ✓
量价提升 ✓
→ 三要素≥2 = 强驱动
→ 政策驱动型只给反弹级预期
判3 硬锚≥2个
capex / BD授权 / 单机价值量 / 订单 / 财报连续性
挂不上锚的叙事 = 定性为故事（非主线）
判4 主线性 vs 热点性
主线性 = 潜伏建仓 + 硬基本面 + 持续 → 重仓死缠
热点性 = 事件刺激 + 无潜伏 + 短暂 → 不参与
判5 环境折价
大盘信号 → 全部降一级
④的信号当⑤用，⑤的信号无效
```
**通过标准**：判4判定"主线性" → 进入第3层
**否决**：判4判定"热点性" → 不参与
---
## 第3层：找介入点（支撑→止跌→买点三级）
### 支撑点（事前画防线）
```
锚1：主力换手成本区（前建仓成本区）
锚2：二线支撑+边际改善
锚3：前低/波段低点（"砸不破前低"=V型买点一半）
锚4：均线只做定位（MA20/60失守=结构警报，但方向判断只认量价异常）
```
### 止跌点（行为确认，不是猜的）
```
① 下跌动能减弱（吸售）+ 缩量不破位
② 小额多次回流出现（机构做加法）
③ 低位看小时级订单流（散户被吓跑，日线量不大是常态）
```
### 买点（三买点白名单，外不看）
```
买点① V型洗盘（底部三步）
条件：砸下来不破前低 + 下午收回 + 缩量
60分钟级别当日进
性质：左侧偏右
买点② 龙形流入共振
条件：当日大额单次流入 + 板块大盘量能共振 + 非加速末端
性质：右侧确认，胜率最高
买点③ 回踩二次确认
条件：首波拉升后缩量回踩 + 不破主力成本区
先过七维鉴别（缩量洗盘70%+高位强势71%+单日大单50%降权）
性质：补货非出货
```
### 三问前置（买前必答）
```
Q1 主力在吗？（第1层已判）
Q2 成长在吗？（第2层已判）
Q3 止损多少？（买点必须能安放可承受止损）
→ 追高无合法止损 = 放弃
→ 仓位与确定性走
```
---
## 第4层：持有管理
```
双否决：
基本面未变 ∧ 主力无坏行为 = 持有
任一破坏 → 行动
止损三轨（靠纪律兜底不靠买得便宜兜底）：
轨1：破关键支撑位（主力成本区/前低）
轨2：高点出逃信号（卖出>建仓量60%）
轨3：环境崩坏（大盘退潮+板块出逃）
```
---
## 执行顺序
```
① 拉大盘环境 → 判R0
② 拉目标个股60日数据
③ 第1层四查 → 有主力？
④ 第2层五判 → 可持续？
⑤ 第3层找介入点 → 支撑/止跌/买点
⑥ 三问前置 → 能安放止损？
⑦ 第4层持有管理 → 双否决
⑧ 输出：买点+止损+仓位+证伪条件
```
---
## 工具映射
| 层 | 工具 | 状态 |
|:---|:-----|:-----|
| R0 | market_state.py | ✅ |
| 查1-4 | mainforce_check.py（待建） | 🔨 |
| 判1 | consensus_stage.py（待建） | 🔨 |
| 判2-5 | 判断标准在框架中，可直接判 | ✅ |
| 买点 | bottom_structure_check.py + pullback_screener.py | ✅ |
| 止损 | position_guard.py | ✅ |
| 持有 | position_guard.py双否决 | ✅ |
**P0缺口**：mainforce_check.py + consensus_stage.py
[IMPORTANT: The user has invoked the "m60-tactical-entry" skill, indicating they want you to follow its instructions. The full skill content is loaded below.]
---
name: m60-tactical-entry
title: 60分钟战术层 — 精确买卖点捕捉
description: 60分钟找买卖点。日线定位置+主力，60分钟定精确入场/出场时机。收到个股分析请求时加载。
tags: [60分钟, 买卖点, 战术层, 盘感]
version: 1.0
author: Hermes Agent
date: 2026-08-27
license: internal
metadata:
hermes:
tags: [trading, intraday, entry-exit]
related_skills: [pangan-muscle-memory, pan-gan-signals]
---
## When to Use
- 个股日线分析通过后，需要精确买卖点时
- 用户问"什么时候买""什么时候卖""今天走势怎么看"
- 盘中异动捕捉
# 60分钟战术层 — 精确买卖点
> 周线看方向，日线定位置+主力，60分钟找买卖点。
> 日线告诉你"这只票有主力"，60分钟告诉你"主力此刻在动手"。
## 一、三层时间框架
```
周线（参考）→ 日线（主战场）→ 60分钟（战术层）
↓ ↓ ↓
大方向 位置+主力 买卖时机
不决策 决策依据 执行依据
```
**铁律：不跳层。** 没过日线分析，不看60分钟。
## 二、60分钟买入信号（三类）
### 信号1：率先启动
```
条件：
□ 板块内大盘还在跌/震荡时，这只票60分钟先拉大阳
□ 涨幅>3%且量比前一日同时段放大
□ 是板块内第一个出现60分钟异动的
含义：有人在抢筹，板块联动的领头羊
动作：观察，等洗盘确认后买
```
### 信号2：V型洗盘（核心买点）
```
条件：
□ 早盘60分钟砸盘（跌幅>3%）
□ 洗盘低点不破前日低点（主力维护）
□ 下午60分钟拉回，收盘价≥开盘价
含义：主力在洗浮筹，不是出货
动作：下午拉回过程中买入（洗盘低点+3%~5%区间）
```
**实证：生益科技8/26**
- 09:30 高开128.62
- 10:30 砸到124.33（-3.4%）
- 洗盘低点124 > 前日低点122 → 守住 ✅
- 15:00 收回130.01 → V型洗盘确认 ✅
- 买入点：129（下午拉回过程中）
### 信号3：缩量横盘后突破
```
条件：
□ 连续2-3根60分钟K线缩量横盘（振幅<2%）
□ 某根60分钟突然放量突破平台上沿
□ 突破时量比>1.5
含义：主力洗完盘开始推
动作：突破确认后买入
```
## 三、60分钟卖出信号（三类）
### 信号1：高位放量滞涨
```
条件：
□ 连续2根60分钟放量（量比>1.5）但涨幅缩小
□ 或出现60分钟长上影线
含义：主力在高位派发
动作：减仓50%+
```
### 信号2：跌破60分钟平台
```
条件：
□ 横盘后跌破60分钟最低点
□ 收盘价跌破60分钟MA20
含义：支撑破了
动作：清仓
```
### 信号3：冲高回落破均线
```
条件：
□ 快速拉高后回落
□ 跌破60分钟MA20且不能收回
含义：短线见顶
动作：减仓或清仓
```
## 四、60分钟+日线联动判断
| 日线位置 | 60分钟信号 | 动作 |
|:---------|:----------|:-----|
| 低位 | 率先启动/V型洗盘 | 买入（主力在吸筹） |
| 低位 | 放量突破 | 加仓（主升浪启动） |
| 中位 | 缩量横盘后突破 | 持有/轻仓加 |
| 中位 | 高位放量滞涨 | 减仓 |
| 高位 | 任何买入信号 | 不追（高位非买点纪律，需回踩+主力确认，非位置=危险） |
| 高位 | 跌破平台 | 清仓 |
## 五、实操流程
```
每天收盘后（15:30-16:00）：
1. 日线分析通过的票 → 拉60分钟数据
2. 检查三个买入信号（有没有？）
3. 检查三个卖出信号（要不要走？）
4. 记录判断 → --save落台账
盘中（可选）：
1. 10:00 看60分钟第一根K线（方向确认器）
2. 11:00 看有没有V型洗盘信号
3. 14:00 看下午是否收回
4. 14:30 最终确认
```
## 六、关键提醒
**60分钟是战术层，不是决策层。** 它告诉你"什么时候动手"，不告诉你"该不该动手"。
该不该动手 → 日线+大盘决定
什么时候动手 → 60分钟决定
**两者缺一不可：**
- 只看日线不看60分钟 → 买在高点/卖在低点
- 只看60分钟不看日线 → 在大盘暴跌时追涨
The user has provided the following instruction alongside the skill invocation: [IMPORTANT: You are running as a scheduled cron job. DELIVERY: Your final response will be automatically delivered to the user — do NOT use send_message or try to deliver the output yourself. Just produce your report/output as your final response and the system handles the rest. SILENT: If there is genuinely nothing new to report, respond with exactly "[SILENT]" (nothing else) to suppress delivery. [SILENT] is a literal ASCII control token — never translate or rephrase it, whatever language the rest of your answer uses. Never combine [SILENT] with content — either report your findings normally, or say [SILENT] and nothing more. FAILURE: If a delegated child fails and this cron run must be recorded as failed, put [CRON_FAILURE] on the first line by itself, then explain the child failure on following lines. RECURSION: This is a run of an EXISTING scheduled job — execute the task now. NEVER create or update a cron job because of recurring or future-schedule language in the task prompt below; treat phrasing like "each Monday" or "every day at 9" as context for this run, not as a request to schedule another job.]
## Output from job 'f06f0ff60f0c'
The following is the most recent output from a preceding cron job. Use it as context for your analysis.
```
# Cron Job: 进化简报-每日22:55（回测结果→明日校准）
**Job ID:** f06f0ff60f0c
**Run Time:** 2026-10-21 22:55:04
**Mode:** no_agent (script)
---
📈 进化简报 2026-10-21（窗口14天）
回测率: 100.0%（366/366 条近期判断已回测）
累计: 落账2066 已决1553 待决0
总命中: 56.8% [52~62%] n=366 （上期 15.7%） | 平均超额 -0.20pp
── 分方向 ──
回避 n=192 命中 55.2% [48~62%] 超额-0.5pp
看空 n= 78 命中 52.6% [42~63%] 超额+0.2pp
看多 n= 49 命中 61.2% [47~74%] 超额+0.9pp ★可信
中性 n= 45 命中 68.9% [54~80%] 超额-0.3pp ★可信
── 来源可信度（n≥10 才列）──
- 四维扫描 n=227 54.6%
✓ 节点转折+ftshare扫描-21:45 n= 18 66.7%
✓ 盘中-1500收盘 n= 16 68.8%
✓ 盘中-1130午盘 n= 15 60.0%
✗ 量价训练-每日提醒 n= 15 40.0%
✓ 龙头融合+确认链-21:40 n= 15 66.7%
✓ 盘中-1400午后 n= 11 63.6%
⚪ 未排期部件（2026-10-17 裁决: jobs.json 里 0 个 cron，不计入停摆；恢复=先排期再移回 LOOP_PARTS）:
· 超额制全量重算
· 经验学习闭环
· 每日判断练习仪(老板10-05指定)
用法: 下判断前先看本简报 —— 上面✅的来源可以更信，✗的来源要打折；🔴停摆部件是系统盲区。
```
## Script Output
The following data was collected by a pre-run script. Use it as context for your analysis.
```
{
"scan_time": "2026-10-22 10:30",
"trading_hours": true,
"sector_map_source": "stock_basic.industry(mootdx无有效行→本地兜底)",
"sectors": {
"sectors_top": [
{
"name": "日用化工",
"avg_pct": 0.59,
"up_ratio": 0.5,
"hot_count": 2,
"hot_stocks": []
},
{
"name": "医疗保健",
"avg_pct": 0.11,
"up_ratio": 0.5,
"hot_count": 2,
"hot_stocks": []
},
{
"name": "塑料",
"avg_pct": -0.63,
"up_ratio": 0.33,
"hot_count": 3,
"hot_stocks": []
},
{
"name": "电气设备",
"avg_pct": -0.8,
"up_ratio": 0.11,
"hot_count": 9,
"hot_stocks": []
},
{
"name": "家用电器",
"avg_pct": -0.8,
"up_ratio": 0.17,
"hot_count": 6,
"hot_stocks": []
},
{
"name": "汽车配件",
"avg_pct": -0.96,
"up_ratio": 0.17,
"hot_count": 6,
"hot_stocks": []
}
],
"sectors_bottom": [
{
"name": "通信设备",
"avg_pct": -4.0,
"up_ratio": 0.2,
"hot_count": 5,
"hot_stocks": [
"300502(-9.1%)",
"300308(-6.0%)",
"601869(-5.2%)"
]
},
{
"name": "互联网",
"avg_pct": -3.08,
"up_ratio": 0.0,
"hot_count": 5,
"hot_stocks": [
"300043(-4.3%)",
"002115(-4.2%)",
"000681(-3.2%)"
]
},
{
"name": "IT设备",
"avg_pct": -2.96,
"up_ratio": 0.0,
"hot_count": 2,
"hot_stocks": [
"001339(-3.5%)"
]
},
{
"name": "广告包装",
"avg_pct": -2.06,
"up_ratio": 0.0,
"hot_count": 2,
"hot_stocks": []
},
{
"name": "中成药",
"avg_pct": -2.01,
"up_ratio": 0.0,
"hot_count": 7,
"hot_stocks": [
"600976(-4.1%)",
"000989(-3.3%)"
]
},
{
"name": "元器件",
"avg_pct": -2.01,
"up_ratio": 0.0,
"hot_count": 8,
"hot_stocks": [
"600183(-4.2%)",
"002463(-4.1%)"
]
}
],
"sector_count": 22,
"sector_range": "+0.59% → -4.00%",
"sector_map_source": "stock_basic.industry(mootdx无有效行→本地兜底)"
},
"stocks": {
"gainers": [
{
"code": "688049",
"close": 42.27,
"pct": 4.45,
"vol_ratio": 0.9,
"pos": "58%",
"age": "25岁(健康拉升)",
"btype": "上升趋势（回踩）",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 843.0
}
],
"losers": [
{
"code": "300502",
"close": 267.49,
"pct": -9.05,
"vol_ratio": 0.97,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "25岁(健康拉升)",
"btype": "下降趋势（反弹）",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 39.0
},
{
"code": "300308",
"close": 608.1,
"pct": -5.98,
"vol_ratio": 0.83,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "25岁(健康拉升)",
"btype": "下降趋势（反弹）",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 21.0
},
{
"code": "688048",
"close": 175.28,
"pct": -5.52,
"vol_ratio": 0.5,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "25岁(健康拉升)",
"btype": "下降趋势（反弹）",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 390.0
},
{
"code": "601869",
"close": 332.6,
"pct": -5.19,
"vol_ratio": 0.56,
"pos": "33%",
"age": "25岁(健康拉升)",
"btype": "下降趋势（反弹）",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 5.0
},
{
"code": "002674",
"close": 20.67,
"pct": -4.75,
"vol_ratio": 0.42,
"pos": "18%",
"age": "35岁(正常拉升)",
"btype": "下降趋势（反弹）",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 6.0
}
],
"volume_surge": [],
"escape_alerts": [],
"all": [
{
"code": "300502",
"close": 267.49,
"pct": -9.05,
"vol_ratio": 0.97,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "25岁(健康拉升)",
"btype": "下降趋势（反弹）",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 39.0
},
{
"code": "300308",
"close": 608.1,
"pct": -5.98,
"vol_ratio": 0.83,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "25岁(健康拉升)",
"btype": "下降趋势（反弹）",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 21.0
},
{
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"pct": -1.5,
"vol_ratio": 0.36,
"pos": "2%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 5.0
},
{
"code": "002725",
"close": 9.93,
"pct": -1.49,
"vol_ratio": 0.32,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "35岁(正常拉升)",
"btype": "上升趋势",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 1.0
},
{
"code": "300258",
"close": 9.23,
"pct": -1.49,
"vol_ratio": 0.47,
"pos": "46%",
"age": "25岁(健康拉升)",
"btype": "上升趋势",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 7.0
},
{
"code": "000543",
"close": 7.33,
"pct": -1.48,
"vol_ratio": 0.22,
"pos": "25%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 6.0
},
{
"code": "300128",
"close": 4.06,
"pct": -1.46,
"vol_ratio": 0.47,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "25岁(健康拉升)",
"btype": "上升趋势",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 8.0
},
{
"code": "300456",
"close": 29.22,
"pct": -1.45,
"vol_ratio": 0.33,
"pos": "18%",
"age": "25岁(健康拉升)",
"btype": "下降趋势（反弹）",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 9.0
},
{
"code": "300363",
"close": 21.43,
"pct": -1.43,
"vol_ratio": 0.34,
"pos": "63%",
"age": "25岁(健康拉升)",
"btype": "上升趋势（回踩）",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 5.0
},
{
"code": "002119",
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"pct": -1.38,
"vol_ratio": 0.39,
"pos": "15%",
"age": "25岁(健康拉升)",
"btype": "上升趋势（回踩）",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 13.0
},
{
"code": "000963",
"close": 26.23,
"pct": -1.35,
"vol_ratio": 0.39,
"pos": "10%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 4.0
},
{
"code": "603501",
"close": 78.52,
"pct": 1.34,
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"pos": "28%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "下降趋势",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 5.0
},
{
"code": "603515",
"close": 14.7,
"pct": -1.34,
"vol_ratio": 0.32,
"pos": "11%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 0.0
},
{
"code": "000049",
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"pct": -1.31,
"vol_ratio": 0.38,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 1.0
},
{
"code": "300241",
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"pct": -1.3,
"vol_ratio": 0.39,
"pos": "34%",
"age": "35岁(正常拉升)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 4.0
},
{
"code": "603033",
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"vol_ratio": 0.38,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "25岁(健康拉升)",
"btype": "上升趋势",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 2.0
},
{
"code": "000767",
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"pct": -1.27,
"vol_ratio": 0.44,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "下降趋势",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 19.0
},
{
"code": "601966",
"close": 10.12,
"pct": -1.27,
"vol_ratio": 0.28,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 3.0
},
{
"code": "600422",
"close": 8.59,
"pct": -1.26,
"vol_ratio": 0.25,
"pos": "42%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 4.0
},
{
"code": "603365",
"close": 15.9,
"pct": -1.24,
"vol_ratio": 0.37,
"pos": "7%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 0.0
},
{
"code": "002475",
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"pct": -1.23,
"vol_ratio": 0.29,
"pos": "16%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "下降趋势",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 25.0
},
{
"code": "003000",
"close": 9.06,
"pct": -1.2,
"vol_ratio": 0.43,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "35岁(正常拉升)",
"btype": "上升趋势",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 1.0
},
{
"code": "000568",
"close": 68.36,
"pct": -1.19,
"vol_ratio": 0.38,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "下降趋势",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 6.0
},
{
"code": "600502",
"close": 4.14,
"pct": -1.19,
"vol_ratio": 0.36,
"pos": "2%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 9.0
},
{
"code": "600132",
"close": 36.73,
"pct": -1.13,
"vol_ratio": 0.42,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 1.0
},
{
"code": "600332",
"close": 19.51,
"pct": -1.12,
"vol_ratio": 0.37,
"pos": "5%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 3.0
},
{
"code": "601668",
"close": 4.46,
"pct": -1.11,
"vol_ratio": 0.4,
"pos": "44%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 93.0
},
{
"code": "688100",
"close": 23.71,
"pct": 1.11,
"vol_ratio": 0.47,
"pos": "7%",
"age": "35岁(正常拉升)",
"btype": "上升趋势（回踩）",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 77.0
},
{
"code": "002352",
"close": 30.5,
"pct": -1.1,
"vol_ratio": 0.34,
"pos": "5%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 7.0
},
{
"code": "300604",
"close": 204.34,
"pct": 1.09,
"vol_ratio": 0.61,
"pos": "2%",
"age": "25岁(健康拉升)",
"btype": "下降趋势（反弹）",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 11.0
},
{
"code": "300831",
"close": 11.85,
"pct": -1.09,
"vol_ratio": 0.31,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "25岁(健康拉升)",
"btype": "下降趋势（反弹）",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 1.0
},
{
"code": "301358",
"close": 44.41,
"pct": -1.09,
"vol_ratio": 0.37,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "下降趋势",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 5.0
},
{
"code": "688484",
"close": 29.97,
"pct": -1.09,
"vol_ratio": 0.3,
"pos": "11%",
"age": "25岁(健康拉升)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 131.0
},
{
"code": "000507",
"close": 4.72,
"pct": -1.05,
"vol_ratio": 0.23,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 2.0
},
{
"code": "300769",
"close": 33.94,
"pct": -1.05,
"vol_ratio": 0.33,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "25岁(健康拉升)",
"btype": "下降趋势（反弹）",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 4.0
},
{
"code": "688180",
"close": 30.74,
"pct": -1.03,
"vol_ratio": 0.33,
"pos": "7%",
"age": "35岁(正常拉升)",
"btype": "上升趋势（回踩）",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 334.0
},
{
"code": "003026",
"close": 27.53,
"pct": -1.01,
"vol_ratio": 0.35,
"pos": "23%",
"age": "25岁(健康拉升)",
"btype": "下降趋势（反弹）",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 3.0
},
{
"code": "600056",
"close": 8.79,
"pct": -1.01,
"vol_ratio": 0.36,
"pos": "1%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 3.0
},
{
"code": "601311",
"close": 7.04,
"pct": -0.98,
"vol_ratio": 0.33,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 3.0
},
{
"code": "603219",
"close": 12.31,
"pct": -0.97,
"vol_ratio": 0.39,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "25岁(健康拉升)",
"btype": "上升趋势",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 1.0
},
{
"code": "688249",
"close": 27.09,
"pct": -0.95,
"vol_ratio": 0.29,
"pos": "1%",
"age": "25岁(健康拉升)",
"btype": "上升趋势（回踩）",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 414.0
},
{
"code": "688458",
"close": 32.55,
"pct": 0.93,
"vol_ratio": 0.66,
"pos": "26%",
"age": "25岁(健康拉升)",
"btype": "上升趋势（回踩）",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 71.0
},
{
"code": "002061",
"close": 3.26,
"pct": -0.91,
"vol_ratio": 0.39,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 7.0
},
{
"code": "002563",
"close": 5.42,
"pct": -0.91,
"vol_ratio": 0.25,
"pos": "12%",
"age": "25岁(健康拉升)",
"btype": "上升趋势",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 4.0
},
{
"code": "000001",
"close": 11.31,
"pct": -0.88,
"vol_ratio": 0.44,
"pos": "52%",
"age": "45岁(温和拉升)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 53.0
},
{
"code": "300134",
"close": 7.91,
"pct": -0.88,
"vol_ratio": 0.68,
"pos": "25%",
"age": "25岁(健康拉升)",
"btype": "上升趋势（回踩）",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 5.0
},
{
"code": "002083",
"close": 9.2,
"pct": -0.86,
"vol_ratio": 0.58,
"pos": "8%",
"age": "25岁(健康拉升)",
"btype": "上升趋势（回踩）",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 18.0
},
{
"code": "002340",
"close": 5.86,
"pct": -0.85,
"vol_ratio": 0.38,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 15.0
},
{
"code": "600021",
"close": 11.84,
"pct": -0.84,
"vol_ratio": 0.32,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "下降趋势",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 5.0
},
{
"code": "603260",
"close": 30.03,
"pct": -0.83,
"vol_ratio": 0.3,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 3.0
},
{
"code": "003043",
"close": 53.06,
"pct": -0.82,
"vol_ratio": 0.45,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "25岁(健康拉升)",
"btype": "下降趋势（反弹）",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 1.0
},
{
"code": "002031",
"close": 5.07,
"pct": 0.8,
"vol_ratio": 0.55,
"pos": "30%",
"age": "25岁(健康拉升)",
"btype": "下降趋势（反弹）",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 42.0
},
{
"code": "002522",
"close": 4.93,
"pct": -0.8,
"vol_ratio": 0.44,
"pos": "31%",
"age": "25岁(健康拉升)",
"btype": "上升趋势（回踩）",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 9.0
},
{
"code": "300219",
"close": 6.18,
"pct": -0.8,
"vol_ratio": 0.37,
"pos": "8%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 4.0
},
{
"code": "000423",
"close": 46.84,
"pct": -0.78,
"vol_ratio": 0.23,
"pos": "19%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 2.0
},
{
"code": "300217",
"close": 3.9,
"pct": -0.76,
"vol_ratio": 0.48,
"pos": "6%",
"age": "25岁(健康拉升)",
"btype": "上升趋势",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 5.0
},
{
"code": "301246",
"close": 15.75,
"pct": -0.76,
"vol_ratio": 0.41,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "35岁(正常拉升)",
"btype": "上升趋势（回踩）",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 2.0
},
{
"code": "600809",
"close": 109.8,
"pct": -0.76,
"vol_ratio": 0.33,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "25岁(健康拉升)",
"btype": "上升趋势",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 3.0
},
{
"code": "002019",
"close": 9.26,
"pct": -0.75,
"vol_ratio": 0.35,
"pos": "6%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 2.0
},
{
"code": "300015",
"close": 8.02,
"pct": 0.75,
"vol_ratio": 0.48,
"pos": "19%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 27.0
},
{
"code": "300759",
"close": 38.41,
"pct": -0.75,
"vol_ratio": 0.24,
"pos": "16%",
"age": "25岁(健康拉升)",
"btype": "下降趋势（反弹）",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 10.0
},
{
"code": "601628",
"close": 33.69,
"pct": -0.71,
"vol_ratio": 0.39,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 7.0
},
{
"code": "300077",
"close": 17.09,
"pct": -0.7,
"vol_ratio": 0.4,
"pos": "18%",
"age": "25岁(健康拉升)",
"btype": "上升趋势（回踩）",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 8.0
},
{
"code": "000885",
"close": 11.63,
"pct": -0.68,
"vol_ratio": 0.26,
"pos": "5%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 1.0
},
{
"code": "601186",
"close": 6.03,
"pct": -0.66,
"vol_ratio": 0.48,
"pos": "21%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 18.0
},
{
"code": "601163",
"close": 12.23,
"pct": -0.65,
"vol_ratio": 0.3,
"pos": "6%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 1.0
},
{
"code": "600987",
"close": 6.21,
"pct": -0.64,
"vol_ratio": 0.32,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 1.0
},
{
"code": "688798",
"close": 52.71,
"pct": 0.63,
"vol_ratio": 0.75,
"pos": "29%",
"age": "25岁(健康拉升)",
"btype": "上升趋势（回踩）",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 198.0
},
{
"code": "002729",
"close": 13.07,
"pct": -0.61,
"vol_ratio": 0.4,
"pos": "38%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 1.0
},
{
"code": "601200",
"close": 6.66,
"pct": -0.6,
"vol_ratio": 0.5,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 3.0
},
{
"code": "300856",
"close": 10.11,
"pct": -0.59,
"vol_ratio": 0.38,
"pos": "1%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 1.0
},
{
"code": "688005",
"close": 19.94,
"pct": -0.55,
"vol_ratio": 0.37,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "下降趋势",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 429.0
},
{
"code": "002884",
"close": 14.97,
"pct": -0.53,
"vol_ratio": 0.39,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 1.0
},
{
"code": "300529",
"close": 15.05,
"pct": -0.53,
"vol_ratio": 0.31,
"pos": "5%",
"age": "35岁(正常拉升)",
"btype": "下降趋势（反弹）",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 1.0
},
{
"code": "002327",
"close": 5.93,
"pct": -0.5,
"vol_ratio": 0.15,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 1.0
},
{
"code": "603050",
"close": 14.87,
"pct": -0.47,
"vol_ratio": 0.44,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 1.0
}
],
"total_scanned": 168
}
}
📊 因果基因（脚本自证）
- 数据源: mootdx block 概念板块映射(空则 stock_basic.industry 本地兜底) + DataHub.get_daily(60日) + /tmp/dynamic_scan.json缓存
- 分析路径: 个股涨跌反推板块热度 + 涨幅/跌幅/放量/逃顶检测(position_utils/wei_laoshi_patterns)
- 判断: 涨幅最大/跌幅最大/放量异动/逃顶预警四类清单(JSON)，供盘中决策引用
[funnel-merge] sectors ← 111个行业 (全市场行业·S1 sina全市场实时快照 asof=20261022) | 原样本反推口径见上方 JSON 的 sector_map_source
## 位置与量能判读（量是因价是果）
- 扫描168只: 强势>3% 1只 / 弱势<-3% 5只 / 放量异动(量比>1.5) 0只（阈值=脚本口径）
- 位置五维·MA60分位: 低位<20% 4只 / 中位20-65% 2只 / 高位>65% 0只（规范口径 position_layer 20/65, 低位看价顶部看量）
- 量能三标准 [数据日20261022·源S1 sina全市场实时快照]: 今日 4.53亿手 vs 昨 9.17亿手 -50.6% | 近1220日分位 0% → 放量异动=增量确认候选(需突破配合) | 缩量止跌: 未触发(量缩, 深成指-1.90%) | 天量见天价: 未触发(分位0% vs 触发线95%)
- 逃顶预警0只: 无 → 高位看量, 触发票按减仓预案处理
## 主线识别·三漏斗+同比双层比
- 板块间(个股反推): 热度TOP 工程机械均值1.28%(上涨比0.47) vs 冷 出版业均值-4.73%（有效板块111个 区间+1.28% → -4.73%）
- 板块内双层比: TOP板块异动股 920706(+14.2%)/920174(+3.1%)/603280(+10.0%)（个股行情≠板块行为, 以分化>5pp为界看个股）
- 三漏斗①板块成交额>500亿 [数据日20261022·源S1 sina全市场实时快照]: 热度TOP 工程机械 36亿✗ | 其他 0亿✗ | 石油加工 18亿✗ → 全市场过门 3/111 个行业; 成交TOP(资金在哪): 元器件772亿 / 半导体743亿 / 通信设备668亿
- 三漏斗②产业链联动 [源 industry_chain 图谱·关键词+成分股归并, 局限:非官方产业链口径]: 工程机械→无链映射·同业归并 38只 上涨18/下跌19 均值+1.3% [联动不可判·局限缺产业链映射] | 其他→无链映射·同业归并 1只 上涨1/下跌0 均值+1.3% [联动不可判·局限缺产业链映射] | 石油加工→无链映射·同业归并 14只 上涨5/下跌8 均值+1.1% [联动不可判·局限缺产业链映射] → 可判过门 0/3
- 三漏斗③热度持续≥3天 [热度日=当日行业均值跑赢全市场均值; 序列源 sector_daily 5年+当日快照]: 工程机械 连续3天(近5日 -1.7/-3.2/+1.3/+0.3/+1.3)✓ | 其他 连续2天(近5日 +6.4/-3.6/-3.8/+2.6/+1.3)✗ | 石油加工 连续1天(近5日 -0.9/-3.2/+2.0/-0.8/+1.1)✗ → 过门 1/3
- 三漏斗合成(TOP3, 数据层只给事实): 工程机械:①不过/②待判(缺映射)/③过 | 其他:①不过/②待判(缺映射)/③不过 | 石油加工:①不过/②待判(缺映射)/③不过 → 三关全过 0/3 (主线由 AI 裁定, 数据层不下结论)
- 未过三漏斗 → 动态榜只当异动线索, 不当主线结论、不追高
## 情绪周期锚·仓位与证伪
- 涨停家数: 25 | 跌停: 8 | 炸板: 16 → 炸板率39.0% | 连板高度: 4板(002724连4板 / 603278连4板 / 002076连3板, 回看4个有池交易日) | 情绪七度: 恐慌→恐慌 [ftshare 20261022] → 五阶段(冰点/修复/发酵/高潮/退潮)由 AI 按此裁定, 数据层不下定论
- 仓位=min(大盘阶段,板块数): 大盘阶段: 闸门: ⛔ 关（只看大盘，不看板块/个股） ←源链路09:30闸门@2026-10-22 09:30:06 | 有效板块111个(源S1 sina全市场实时快照 asof=20261022) → 只给板块档, 仓位待闸门定
- 证伪: 若工程机械次日高开低走且量比>1.5 → 按一日游处理不追; 若逃顶票X继续放量新高 → 逃顶判据复核
📊 因果基因
- 数据源: data_hub(mootdx 分时/分钟K + westock 日K) + stock_basic.industry 板块映射 + 三漏斗字段(sina全市场实时→tushare日线→sector_daily 5年 三级降级阶梯; 情绪=ftshare涨跌停池; 闸门=链路09:30闸门; 产业链=industry_chain图谱)
- 分析路径: 10:30 全市场异动扫描 → 位置五维(MA60分位, 规范口径20/65) → 三漏斗(板块成交额/产业链联动/热度序列)+同比双层比 → 情绪锚仓位
- 判断: 缺字段一律标 [不可用] 并写明降级原因, 不下结论；三漏斗未过 → 动态榜只当异动线索不当主线
[chain] 10:30主线 已写入 /tmp/fugui_cron_output/
```
## ⚠️ 资金面三问（强制·2026-10-21 老板令：先答三问再引数据）
凡输出含资金面/主力行为判断（谁在买、主力意图、建仓/洗盘/出货/承接），必须在判断段**开头**先答三问：
1. **谁在买？** 主力四分类：汪汪队（维稳，反向指标）/ 大机构（产业逻辑，慢而长）/ 某庄（独立控盘）/ 游资（事件驱动，快）——不同类型决定你该用什么节奏跟。
2. **为什么买？** 位置+意图：低位建仓（吸筹/试盘）/ 中位洗盘（换手降阻力）/ 高位派发（借势出货）。同一量价在不同位置含义相反。
3. **买了之后会做什么？** 判断下一步动作：继续加仓 / 洗盘 / 拉升 / 出货——这是"脚印会变，走路的人不变"的那层意图。
**硬约束**：
- 三问是**答案层**，数据是**证据层**。先答三问，再用数据佐证；不得只报数据不下意图判断。
- 禁止把意图推断问题降级为"缺数据"问题——归纳法（阈值→回测→期望值）回答不了演绎问题（主力为什么这么做）。
- 三问答不出（证据不足）→ 明写"意图不明，不判断"，禁止硬编一个主力动机。
---
你是富贵盘中分析师（10:30 主线漏斗）。上方【数据摘要】来自零token动态扫描：全市场异动（涨幅/放量/逃顶）、个股反推的板块热度、位置五维、三漏斗字段、情绪锚，以及上游链路（06:00晨报/08:00四维/09:30闸门/10:00感知）。
严格三段，先事实后判断：
① 现在资金在哪些板块：抄数据事实（热度TOP板块与均值、异动股、放量股、逃顶警报），做板块间与板块内的同比双层比（同比=主力探测器：同等条件谁跌得少涨得高）。
② 主线裁定+个股：过三漏斗（成交额>500亿/产业链联动/持续≥3天）才叫主线，没过就只当异动线索不追高；给出主线板块、每板块首期龙或补涨龙候选最多3只、匹配战法（登高望远/现龙在田/龙凤呈祥/三振）与60分钟入场观察点；环境仓位档必须给。
③ 证伪：主线假设与个股候选各配「如果价格走了对面我就错了」的可核对条件（价格/量能阈值+到期时点）。
必落 judgment_ledger：source=盘中-1030主线、date、direction、horizon、trigger、falsify、judgment、reason 三要素齐全（写入端拒收空件）。补正后不得清理隔离表：禁止对 judgments_rejected 执行任何 DELETE/UPDATE——它是复发台账，同 key 再拒由写入端自动记 last_seen/reject_count，人工删行=销毁证据（2026-10-20 根修接入）。
数据字段标「需补数据」时如实说缺字段、不许脑补数字；上游链路 ❌未产出要在结论里写明断链影响。
**Response Characters:** 5472
## Response
# 📊 盘中主线漏斗 2026-10-22 10:30（数据复核至 10:48）
> 上游链路：08:00四维 ✅｜08:20盘前预案 ✅｜09:30闸门 ✅｜10:00感知 ⚠️｜10:30主线 ✅
> 自跑复核：sina 全市场实时快照 5575 只（10:48:03）+ 深成指/个股分时同时段同比
---
## ① 资金在哪些板块（先事实，后判断）
**全市场广度（我自己拉的，非脚本样本）**
| 指标 | 值 | 口径 |
|:---|:---|:---|
| 有效样本 | 5570 只（5 只停牌剔除） | sina 全市场 10:48 |
| 上涨/下跌/平 | 705 / 4802 / 63 → **上涨比 12.7%** | — |
| 中位数 | **-1.77%** | 均值 -1.80% |
| >3% / <-3% | 136 只 / **1285 只** | 涨停近似 33 / 跌停近似 23 |
| 深成指 | 11469（**-2.00%**），盘中低 **11450.74 = 阶段新低** | 10:42 |
| 全市场成交额 | 7730 亿（累计至 10:48） | — |
| **同时段量能** | 深成指前 60 分钟 3844 万手 vs 昨日同刻 3930 万手 = **-2.2%（量平）** | 分时自算 |
**资金在哪：成交额前列全绿，且全在 AI 算力链**
| 个股 | 行业 | 成交 | 涨跌 |
|:---|:---|---:|---:|
| 中际旭创 300308 | 通信设备 | **135.9亿** | -7.40% |
| 新易盛 300502 | 通信设备 | **114.6亿** | **-10.44%**（跌停边缘） |
| 宁德时代 300750 | 电气设备 | 103.5亿 | -2.87% |
| 长鑫科技 688825 | 半导体 | 55.6亿 | -4.05% |
| 兆易创新 603986 | 半导体 | 40.4亿 | -5.10% |
| 东山精密 002384 | 元器件 | 39.6亿 | -6.88% |
| 寒武纪 688256 | 半导体 | 38.6亿 | -3.03% |
| 生益/沪电/天孚/源杰 | 元器件·通信 | 27~37亿 | -5.5~-6.8% |
**板块间同比（三漏斗字段 + 我的复核）**
- 成交额 >500 亿的行业只有 **4 个，全部下跌**：元器件 841亿(-2.65%, 上涨比9%)、半导体 822亿(-2.44%, 6%)、通信设备 716亿(-2.37%, 14%)、电气设备 528亿(-0.92%, 24%)。
- 逆势 TOP：工程机械 **+1.08%**(38只, 上涨比50%, 仅39亿)、石油加工 +0.86%(19亿)、钢加工 +0.35%(20亿)、机床制造 +0.14%。
- 最弱：出版业 **-5.18%**(上涨比3%)、影视音像 -5.01%、互联网 -3.84%(81只, 上涨比2%, 158亿)、文教休闲 -3.48%、服饰 -3.38%。
**板块内双层比（工程机械 = 唯一逆势方向的成色）**
- 大票 8 只（三一+0.23/恒立+0.23/徐工-0.85/中联-0.34）均值 **+0.04%＝基本没动**；其余 30 只均值 +1.36% 但**中位 -0.25%**；北交所 4 只均值 **+4.09%**。
- 涨停梯队：铁拓机械 920706 +12.3%（北交所 0.9亿）、南矿集团 +10.01%、山河智能 +10.00%(3.4亿)、林州重机 +10.00%、南方路机 +9.99%。
- → **拉升全在小票+北交所，权重无机构进场痕迹**（三一前 60 分钟量同比 **-5.2%**，只占昨全天 38.9%）。
**放量出逃的量能证据（分时同时段，非全日口径）**
- 新易盛：今日前 60 分钟量 = 昨全天 **90.3%**，同时段 **+78.4%**
- 中际旭创：= 昨全天 **80.6%**，同时段 **+46.3%**
- 三一重工：同时段 **-5.2%**（缩量）
→ 同一个市场，钱在**科技硬件里夺路而出**，在**周期小票里零星试探**。
### ⚠️ 资金面三问（先答三问，再引数据）
**主战场（AI 算力硬件，卖方）**
1. **谁在卖？** 不是汪汪队维稳盘，是**机构+游资混合的 AI 算力持仓盘**。判据：单只 135.9/114.6 亿成交、前 60 分钟量达昨全天 80~90%、同时段 +46~78%——这个量级散户造不出来；且新易盛 60 日分位 0%（已在 60 日低位）仍放量新低 = 破位踩踏，不是吸筹（吸筹形态是"缩量跌不动"）。
2. **为什么在卖？** 位置：板块今日才 -2.4~-2.65%，个股先破位 = 主升后高位回落段。**高位放量滞涨后的放量下跌 = 派发/出逃**（m60 卖出信号 1）；今日放量创新低 = 出逃加速，不满足洗盘条件（缩量+不破前低）。
3. **卖完会做什么？** —— **意图不明，不判断**。只给条件：明后天 CPO 双龙头若缩量止跌且不再创新低（新易盛 >262.86、中际旭创 >597.11）→ 一次性踩踏；若继续放量新低 → 主线退潮确认，全线回避。
**工程机械（买方）**
1. **谁在买？** 游资+散户跟风盘（小票/北交所 0.2~3.4 亿成交的涨停板），权重没动 = **无机构进场证据**。
2. **为什么买？** 60 日低位的题材脉冲（事件驱动），不是建仓结构（建仓=低位多次小幅放量，不是一天涨停）。
3. **买完会做什么？** 游资节奏：炸板率 39% 的环境下**次日冲高回落概率高**（证伪条件见③）。
---
## ② 主线裁定 + 个股
**R0 闸门：⛔ 关（两个条件都不满足，我独立复核一致）**
- ① 近 3 日仍创新低：10/21 低 11666.59 < 10/20 低 11698.50；今日盘中已到 **11450.74**
- ② 止跌日放量：10/21 量 1.45 亿手 vs 10/20 1.47 亿手 → 缩 1.2%
→ **观察层照常（板块个股全看），操作层 0 成（影子池模式），不给买点、不建新仓**
**三漏斗：0/3 全过 → 无主线**
- TOP3 热度板块：工程机械 ①不过(39亿<<500亿)/②待判(缺产业链映射)/③过(3天)；石油加工 ①不过/②待判/③不过
- 成交额 >500 亿的 4 个行业**都在跌** → 那是**老主线退潮**，不是新主线
- **裁定：老主线(AI算力)放量出逃 + 无新主线接棒 = 主线真空期**。唯一逆势方向（工程机械/石油加工/钢加工）成交额合计不到 80 亿，判**热点性（事件+小票+短暂），非主线性（无潜伏+无硬锚+无权重参与）**。
**环境仓位档：大盘下跌态 0-2 成 + 闸门关 → 实际 0 成（只观察不动钱）。**
**三问前置 Q3：涨停板追高无法安放合法止损 → 放弃追板。**
**个股候选（≤3 只，全部仅入影子池观察，闸门关不构成买点）**
| # | 标的 | 定性 | 战法 | 60分钟观察点 |
|:--|:---|:---|:---|:---|
| 1 | 山河智能 002097（+10.00%, 3.4亿） | 工程机械首期龙候选 | 现龙在田（低位首板） | 明日首根 60 分钟不破 6.60 且缩量回调<3% → 进入战法评估；放量破 6.58 → 一日游否决 |
| 2 | 南方路机 603280（+9.99%, 1.2亿） | 板块梯队确认 | 龙凤呈祥 | 60 分钟横盘不破 27.74（今日低）+ 量缩 → 等第二波；跌破 27.74 → 出局 |
| 3 | 三一重工 600031（+0.23%, 缩量） | **不是候选，是板块验证器** | — | 只有它 60 分钟放量转涨（量比>1.3 且涨幅>1.5%），工程机械才算板块级行为；否则小票行情不追 |
**风险锚（不是候选，是冻结条件）**：新易盛/中际旭创 若继续放量新低（<262.86 / <597.11）→ 全市场风险未释放完，影子池全部冻结。
**盘前对照（可核对的复盘点）**：08:20 预案心法 TOP12 是软件 95/半导体 93/半导体材料 92/通信线缆 86/PCB 84——**今日集体下跌**（软件 -2.09%、半导体 -2.44%、元器件 -2.65%、通信设备 -2.37%、互联网 -3.84%）。心法评分（趋势+位置+量能）在退潮日给出的恰是跌得最狠的方向：**"心法好"=前期强势=退潮日的高 beta**。反过来，08:00 四维 Phase0 预警的 🔴高位派发（空运位90/铜位77/机场位71）与 🟢中位拉升（化纤/石油加工/钢加工/水泥）中的后两个，今日确实逆势（石油加工 +0.86%、钢加工 +0.35%）。
---
## ③ 证伪（如果价格走了对面，我就错了）
| 假设 | 证伪条件 | 到期 |
|:---|:---|:---|
| AI 算力**放量出逃**（回避） | 元器件/半导体/通信设备**任一收盘均值 >+1% 且前 60 分钟量同比 >+30%**（必须用同时段口径） | 今日收盘 |
| 工程机械 = **热点性**（非主线） | 10/23 板块均值继续跑赢全市场 **+2pp** 且大票（三一/恒立/徐工）**60 分钟量比>1.3 且涨幅>1.5%** → 升级为主线候选重走三漏斗 | 10/23 收盘 |
| 山河智能 **一日游** | 10/23 首根 60 分钟收阴且量比>1.5 → 从影子池移除 | 10/23 上午 |
| 大盘闸门维持关闭 | **深成指连续 2 日不创新低（低点>11450.74）且 止跌日量>前一日（>1.45 亿手）** → 闸门才开，才允许给买点 | 逐日 |
| "退潮日心法排序=接盘名单" | 08:20 心法 TOP12（软件/半导体/PCB/通信）未来 5 日跑赢大盘 → 结论错 | 10/29 |
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## 🛠️ 数据口径问题（本次实测发现，未改代码）
1. **脚本"量能三标准"在盘中失真**：报「今日4.53亿手 vs 昨9.17亿手 **-50.6%** | 近1220日分位 **0%**」——这是**部分日 vs 全日分布**的口径错误（`mainline_funnel_fields.py:469-495`，today_vol 取实时累计，prev/pctile 取历史全日）。我用分时重算同时段：深成指前 60 分钟 **3844 万手 vs 昨日同刻 3930 万手 = -2.2%（量平）**。→ "-50.6%/分位0%"不可引用；但"缩量止跌未触发"的方向仍成立（指数在跌、不在止跌）。
2. **`dynamic_scan.py:213-215` 的 vol_ratio 结构性偏低**：分母是前 5 日**全日**均量、分子是今日**实时累计**量，10:30 时正常票只有 0.25~0.3 → **"放量异动(量比>1.5) 0 只"不等于没有放量**。实测炬芯科技 688049 在 10:37 已达前 5 日均量的 1.05 倍（真放量）；新易盛/中际旭创按此口径同样失真。
3. **潜在地雷（无线上受害者，未修待批）**：`stock_industry()` 返回 6 位纯码，`_sina_symbol()` 只认带后缀 ts_code，纯码会被拼成 `sz600xxx/sz688xxx` → **丢掉整个沪市+北交所样本**（我第一次全市场快照只拿到 2906 只深市，以为上涨比 11.4%）。`snap_sina` 内部绕开了，目前无线上影响；建议在 `_sina_symbol` 加纯码分支（6开头→sh，4/8/9开头→bj），属边界内小修，未擅动。
4. **上游链路**：09:30 闸门产物 JSON 带 `failed:1` 标记（结论本身与我独立复核一致，需查退出码来源）；10:00 感知的 westock kline **服务限频**（sz001312/sz001257 主力K线缺失），breadth 用昨日定稿；**"06:00晨报"slot 不存在**（42 个产物文件、全历史无该命名）。
## 📒 台账已落（judgments.db，rejected 表未触碰=27行只读）
- **id 2818** 回避 / AI算力硬件(CPO光模块PCB存储) / conf4 / h=5
- **id 2819** 中性 / 工程机械 / conf3 / h=3
- **id 2820** 回避(风险归一化) / 大盘(深成指) / conf4 / h=3
均已回读验证；trigger/falsify/reason 三要素齐全，与上文③一致。