← 归档索引 · 2026-10-23 10:43 · 动态市场扫描-10:30
# Cron Job: 动态市场扫描-10:30
**Job ID:** 0dcde44e6c8e
**Run Time:** 2026-10-23 10:43:09
**Schedule:** 30 10 * * 1-5
**Prompt Characters:** 50890
## Prompt
[IMPORTANT: The user has invoked the "taoge-four-layer-funnel" skill, indicating they want you to follow its instructions. The full skill content is loaded below.]
---
name: taoge-four-layer-funnel
description: "涛哥四层漏斗——有主力+可持续+找介入+持有管理。收到个股/板块分析请求时加载，按四层漏斗逐层判定。"
tags: [主力, 买点, 漏斗, 持仓管理, 涛哥体系]
created: 2026-09-10
---
# 涛哥四层漏斗分析框架
> 来源：老板2026-09-10对涛哥直播深度学习后构建
> 原则：从"找便宜股"切换成"在不低的位置找安全的行为结构"
## 前置铁律
```
R0: 大盘没稳 → 全部信号降一级
判断标准：深成指近3日是否止跌+止跌日放量
两个条件都满足 → 看板块/个股
任一不满足 → 只看大盘
```
---
## 第1层：确认"有主力"（不问价格问行为）
四查清单：
```
查1 低点建仓证据
条件：波段低点量价异常≥3次
标准：vol > MA20(vol) * 1.3 且 pct_chg > 0
判定：次数/数量 > 板块均值 = 主力最喜欢
查2 高点无逃跑
条件：波段高点卖出量 < 建仓量 20%
60-70% = 趋势转跌（逃跑）
20-60% = 调整（分歧）
<20% = 中继（洗盘）
查3 吸售状态
条件：下跌轨迹由快变慢（跌幅递减）
表现：连续阴线实体缩小+量缩
含义：老主力不舍得卖=抛压枯竭
查4 板块验证
条件：多板块主力分布+抱团 = 趋势前置
警告：单一细分独走 = 警惕（可能是个股行为非主力行为）
```
**通过标准**：查1+查2同时通过 → 进入第2层
**否决**：查2判定"逃跑" → 直接退出
---
## 第2层：过滤"可持续"（有主力≠能持续）
```
判1 共识五阶段定位
① 聪明钱建仓期 → 吃鱼身（最佳介入）
② 机构进来不走期 → 吃鱼腹（可介入）
③ 机构加速拉升期 → 鱼尾上半（轻仓跟）
④ 散户共识期 → 鱼尾下半（反向指标，减仓）
⑤ 主力出货期 → 不参与
判2 内生动力三要素
需求旺 ✓
供给不足 ✓
量价提升 ✓
→ 三要素≥2 = 强驱动
→ 政策驱动型只给反弹级预期
判3 硬锚≥2个
capex / BD授权 / 单机价值量 / 订单 / 财报连续性
挂不上锚的叙事 = 定性为故事（非主线）
判4 主线性 vs 热点性
主线性 = 潜伏建仓 + 硬基本面 + 持续 → 重仓死缠
热点性 = 事件刺激 + 无潜伏 + 短暂 → 不参与
判5 环境折价
大盘信号 → 全部降一级
④的信号当⑤用，⑤的信号无效
```
**通过标准**：判4判定"主线性" → 进入第3层
**否决**：判4判定"热点性" → 不参与
---
## 第3层：找介入点（支撑→止跌→买点三级）
### 支撑点（事前画防线）
```
锚1：主力换手成本区（前建仓成本区）
锚2：二线支撑+边际改善
锚3：前低/波段低点（"砸不破前低"=V型买点一半）
锚4：均线只做定位（MA20/60失守=结构警报，但方向判断只认量价异常）
```
### 止跌点（行为确认，不是猜的）
```
① 下跌动能减弱（吸售）+ 缩量不破位
② 小额多次回流出现（机构做加法）
③ 低位看小时级订单流（散户被吓跑，日线量不大是常态）
```
### 买点（三买点白名单，外不看）
```
买点① V型洗盘（底部三步）
条件：砸下来不破前低 + 下午收回 + 缩量
60分钟级别当日进
性质：左侧偏右
买点② 龙形流入共振
条件：当日大额单次流入 + 板块大盘量能共振 + 非加速末端
性质：右侧确认，胜率最高
买点③ 回踩二次确认
条件：首波拉升后缩量回踩 + 不破主力成本区
先过七维鉴别（缩量洗盘70%+高位强势71%+单日大单50%降权）
性质：补货非出货
```
### 三问前置（买前必答）
```
Q1 主力在吗？（第1层已判）
Q2 成长在吗？（第2层已判）
Q3 止损多少？（买点必须能安放可承受止损）
→ 追高无合法止损 = 放弃
→ 仓位与确定性走
```
---
## 第4层：持有管理
```
双否决：
基本面未变 ∧ 主力无坏行为 = 持有
任一破坏 → 行动
止损三轨（靠纪律兜底不靠买得便宜兜底）：
轨1：破关键支撑位（主力成本区/前低）
轨2：高点出逃信号（卖出>建仓量60%）
轨3：环境崩坏（大盘退潮+板块出逃）
```
---
## 执行顺序
```
① 拉大盘环境 → 判R0
② 拉目标个股60日数据
③ 第1层四查 → 有主力？
④ 第2层五判 → 可持续？
⑤ 第3层找介入点 → 支撑/止跌/买点
⑥ 三问前置 → 能安放止损？
⑦ 第4层持有管理 → 双否决
⑧ 输出：买点+止损+仓位+证伪条件
```
---
## 工具映射
| 层 | 工具 | 状态 |
|:---|:-----|:-----|
| R0 | market_state.py | ✅ |
| 查1-4 | mainforce_check.py（待建） | 🔨 |
| 判1 | consensus_stage.py（待建） | 🔨 |
| 判2-5 | 判断标准在框架中，可直接判 | ✅ |
| 买点 | bottom_structure_check.py + pullback_screener.py | ✅ |
| 止损 | position_guard.py | ✅ |
| 持有 | position_guard.py双否决 | ✅ |
**P0缺口**：mainforce_check.py + consensus_stage.py
[IMPORTANT: The user has invoked the "m60-tactical-entry" skill, indicating they want you to follow its instructions. The full skill content is loaded below.]
---
name: m60-tactical-entry
title: 60分钟战术层 — 精确买卖点捕捉
description: 60分钟找买卖点。日线定位置+主力，60分钟定精确入场/出场时机。收到个股分析请求时加载。
tags: [60分钟, 买卖点, 战术层, 盘感]
version: 1.0
author: Hermes Agent
date: 2026-08-27
license: internal
metadata:
hermes:
tags: [trading, intraday, entry-exit]
related_skills: [pangan-muscle-memory, pan-gan-signals]
---
## When to Use
- 个股日线分析通过后，需要精确买卖点时
- 用户问"什么时候买""什么时候卖""今天走势怎么看"
- 盘中异动捕捉
# 60分钟战术层 — 精确买卖点
> 周线看方向，日线定位置+主力，60分钟找买卖点。
> 日线告诉你"这只票有主力"，60分钟告诉你"主力此刻在动手"。
## 一、三层时间框架
```
周线（参考）→ 日线（主战场）→ 60分钟（战术层）
↓ ↓ ↓
大方向 位置+主力 买卖时机
不决策 决策依据 执行依据
```
**铁律：不跳层。** 没过日线分析，不看60分钟。
## 二、60分钟买入信号（三类）
### 信号1：率先启动
```
条件：
□ 板块内大盘还在跌/震荡时，这只票60分钟先拉大阳
□ 涨幅>3%且量比前一日同时段放大
□ 是板块内第一个出现60分钟异动的
含义：有人在抢筹，板块联动的领头羊
动作：观察，等洗盘确认后买
```
### 信号2：V型洗盘（核心买点）
```
条件：
□ 早盘60分钟砸盘（跌幅>3%）
□ 洗盘低点不破前日低点（主力维护）
□ 下午60分钟拉回，收盘价≥开盘价
含义：主力在洗浮筹，不是出货
动作：下午拉回过程中买入（洗盘低点+3%~5%区间）
```
**实证：生益科技8/26**
- 09:30 高开128.62
- 10:30 砸到124.33（-3.4%）
- 洗盘低点124 > 前日低点122 → 守住 ✅
- 15:00 收回130.01 → V型洗盘确认 ✅
- 买入点：129（下午拉回过程中）
### 信号3：缩量横盘后突破
```
条件：
□ 连续2-3根60分钟K线缩量横盘（振幅<2%）
□ 某根60分钟突然放量突破平台上沿
□ 突破时量比>1.5
含义：主力洗完盘开始推
动作：突破确认后买入
```
## 三、60分钟卖出信号（三类）
### 信号1：高位放量滞涨
```
条件：
□ 连续2根60分钟放量（量比>1.5）但涨幅缩小
□ 或出现60分钟长上影线
含义：主力在高位派发
动作：减仓50%+
```
### 信号2：跌破60分钟平台
```
条件：
□ 横盘后跌破60分钟最低点
□ 收盘价跌破60分钟MA20
含义：支撑破了
动作：清仓
```
### 信号3：冲高回落破均线
```
条件：
□ 快速拉高后回落
□ 跌破60分钟MA20且不能收回
含义：短线见顶
动作：减仓或清仓
```
## 四、60分钟+日线联动判断
| 日线位置 | 60分钟信号 | 动作 |
|:---------|:----------|:-----|
| 低位 | 率先启动/V型洗盘 | 买入（主力在吸筹） |
| 低位 | 放量突破 | 加仓（主升浪启动） |
| 中位 | 缩量横盘后突破 | 持有/轻仓加 |
| 中位 | 高位放量滞涨 | 减仓 |
| 高位 | 任何买入信号 | 不追（高位非买点纪律，需回踩+主力确认，非位置=危险） |
| 高位 | 跌破平台 | 清仓 |
## 五、实操流程
```
每天收盘后（15:30-16:00）：
1. 日线分析通过的票 → 拉60分钟数据
2. 检查三个买入信号（有没有？）
3. 检查三个卖出信号（要不要走？）
4. 记录判断 → --save落台账
盘中（可选）：
1. 10:00 看60分钟第一根K线（方向确认器）
2. 11:00 看有没有V型洗盘信号
3. 14:00 看下午是否收回
4. 14:30 最终确认
```
## 六、关键提醒
**60分钟是战术层，不是决策层。** 它告诉你"什么时候动手"，不告诉你"该不该动手"。
该不该动手 → 日线+大盘决定
什么时候动手 → 60分钟决定
**两者缺一不可：**
- 只看日线不看60分钟 → 买在高点/卖在低点
- 只看60分钟不看日线 → 在大盘暴跌时追涨
The user has provided the following instruction alongside the skill invocation: [IMPORTANT: You are running as a scheduled cron job. DELIVERY: Your final response will be automatically delivered to the user — do NOT use send_message or try to deliver the output yourself. Just produce your report/output as your final response and the system handles the rest. SILENT: If there is genuinely nothing new to report, respond with exactly "[SILENT]" (nothing else) to suppress delivery. [SILENT] is a literal ASCII control token — never translate or rephrase it, whatever language the rest of your answer uses. Never combine [SILENT] with content — either report your findings normally, or say [SILENT] and nothing more. FAILURE: If a delegated child fails and this cron run must be recorded as failed, put [CRON_FAILURE] on the first line by itself, then explain the child failure on following lines. RECURSION: This is a run of an EXISTING scheduled job — execute the task now. NEVER create or update a cron job because of recurring or future-schedule language in the task prompt below; treat phrasing like "each Monday" or "every day at 9" as context for this run, not as a request to schedule another job.]
## Output from job 'f06f0ff60f0c'
The following is the most recent output from a preceding cron job. Use it as context for your analysis.
```
# Cron Job: 进化简报-每日22:55（回测结果→明日校准）
**Job ID:** f06f0ff60f0c
**Run Time:** 2026-10-22 22:55:04
**Mode:** no_agent (script)
---
📈 进化简报 2026-10-22（窗口14天）
回测率: 100.0%（383/383 条近期判断已回测）
累计: 落账2117 已决1570 待决0
总命中: 55.9% [51~61%] n=383 （上期 17.8%） | 平均超额 -0.14pp
── 分方向 ──
回避 n=195 命中 54.9% [48~62%] 超额-0.5pp
看空 n= 79 命中 51.9% [41~63%] 超额+0.2pp
看多 n= 56 命中 58.9% [46~71%] 超额+0.9pp
中性 n= 51 命中 64.7% [51~76%] 超额-0.1pp ★可信
── 来源可信度（n≥10 才列）──
- 四维扫描 n=227 54.6%
- 节点转折+ftshare扫描-21:45 n= 22 59.1%
- 盘中-1130午盘 n= 19 52.6%
✗ 量价训练-每日提醒 n= 18 44.4%
✓ 盘中-1500收盘 n= 17 64.7%
✓ 龙头融合+确认链-21:40 n= 15 66.7%
✓ 盘中-1400午后 n= 11 63.6%
⚪ 未排期部件（2026-10-17 裁决: jobs.json 里 0 个 cron，不计入停摆；恢复=先排期再移回 LOOP_PARTS）:
· 超额制全量重算
· 经验学习闭环
· 每日判断练习仪(老板10-05指定)
用法: 下判断前先看本简报 —— 上面✅的来源可以更信，✗的来源要打折；🔴停摆部件是系统盲区。
```
## Script Output
The following data was collected by a pre-run script. Use it as context for your analysis.
```
{
"scan_time": "2026-10-23 10:30",
"trading_hours": true,
"sector_map_source": "stock_basic.industry(mootdx无有效行→本地兜底)",
"sectors": {
"sectors_top": [
{
"name": "中成药",
"avg_pct": -0.29,
"up_ratio": 0.5,
"hot_count": 6,
"hot_stocks": []
},
{
"name": "机械基件",
"avg_pct": -0.64,
"up_ratio": 0.5,
"hot_count": 2,
"hot_stocks": [
"603667(-3.9%)"
]
},
{
"name": "白酒",
"avg_pct": -0.65,
"up_ratio": 0.33,
"hot_count": 3,
"hot_stocks": []
},
{
"name": "广告包装",
"avg_pct": -1.02,
"up_ratio": 0.5,
"hot_count": 2,
"hot_stocks": [
"002191(-3.3%)"
]
},
{
"name": "生物制药",
"avg_pct": -1.21,
"up_ratio": 0.0,
"hot_count": 2,
"hot_stocks": []
},
{
"name": "建筑工程",
"avg_pct": -1.56,
"up_ratio": 0.0,
"hot_count": 2,
"hot_stocks": []
}
],
"sectors_bottom": [
{
"name": "塑料",
"avg_pct": -6.31,
"up_ratio": 0.0,
"hot_count": 2,
"hot_stocks": [
"002522(-6.4%)",
"300539(-6.2%)"
]
},
{
"name": "元器件",
"avg_pct": -5.48,
"up_ratio": 0.0,
"hot_count": 8,
"hot_stocks": [
"002463(-7.1%)",
"600183(-6.5%)",
"002137(-6.4%)",
"002729(-6.4%)",
"300128(-6.0%)"
]
},
{
"name": "造纸",
"avg_pct": -5.03,
"up_ratio": 0.0,
"hot_count": 2,
"hot_stocks": [
"001206(-5.7%)",
"301501(-4.3%)"
]
},
{
"name": "软件服务",
"avg_pct": -4.7,
"up_ratio": 0.0,
"hot_count": 3,
"hot_stocks": [
"688171(-6.8%)",
"300377(-5.1%)"
]
},
{
"name": "互联网",
"avg_pct": -4.6,
"up_ratio": 0.0,
"hot_count": 5,
"hot_stocks": [
"002115(-6.6%)",
"000681(-5.1%)",
"300766(-5.0%)",
"300043(-4.1%)"
]
},
{
"name": "半导体",
"avg_pct": -4.37,
"up_ratio": 0.11,
"hot_count": 38,
"hot_stocks": [
"002077(+10.0%)",
"301629(-8.2%)",
"003043(-7.7%)",
"688521(-7.2%)",
"300671(-6.9%)"
]
}
],
"sector_count": 24,
"sector_range": "-0.29% → -6.31%",
"sector_map_source": "stock_basic.industry(mootdx无有效行→本地兜底)"
},
"stocks": {
"gainers": [
{
"code": "002077",
"close": 13.08,
"pct": 10.01,
"vol_ratio": 2.72,
"pos": "52%",
"age": "25岁(健康拉升)",
"btype": "上升趋势（回踩）",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 59.0
}
],
"losers": [
{
"code": "688353",
"close": 65.64,
"pct": -9.34,
"vol_ratio": 0.85,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "25岁(健康拉升)",
"btype": "下降趋势（反弹）",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 260.0
},
{
"code": "301629",
"close": 187.25,
"pct": -8.16,
"vol_ratio": 0.64,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "25岁(健康拉升)",
"btype": "下降趋势（反弹）",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 0.0
},
{
"code": "003043",
"close": 47.78,
"pct": -7.69,
"vol_ratio": 0.59,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "25岁(健康拉升)",
"btype": "下降趋势（反弹）",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 2.0
},
{
"code": "001339",
"close": 55.45,
"pct": -7.58,
"vol_ratio": 0.63,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "35岁(正常拉升)",
"btype": "下降趋势（反弹）",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 5.0
},
{
"code": "603219",
"close": 11.22,
"pct": -7.27,
"vol_ratio": 1.15,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "25岁(健康拉升)",
"btype": "下降趋势（反弹）",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 4.0
}
],
"volume_surge": [
{
"code": "002077",
"close": 13.08,
"pct": 10.01,
"vol_ratio": 2.72,
"pos": "52%",
"age": "25岁(健康拉升)",
"btype": "上升趋势（回踩）",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 59.0
},
{
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"pct": -0.76,
"vol_ratio": 0.41,
"pos": "1%",
"age": "35岁(正常拉升)",
"btype": "下降趋势（反弹）",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 383.0
},
{
"code": "688425",
"close": 3.98,
"pct": -0.75,
"vol_ratio": 0.62,
"pos": "18%",
"age": "45岁(温和拉升)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 1079.0
}
],
"total_scanned": 170
}
}
📊 因果基因（脚本自证）
- 数据源: mootdx block 概念板块映射(空则 stock_basic.industry 本地兜底) + DataHub.get_daily(60日) + /tmp/dynamic_scan.json缓存
- 分析路径: 个股涨跌反推板块热度 + 涨幅/跌幅/放量/逃顶检测(position_utils/wei_laoshi_patterns)
- 判断: 涨幅最大/跌幅最大/放量异动/逃顶预警四类清单(JSON)，供盘中决策引用
[funnel-merge] sectors ← 111个行业 (全市场行业·S1 sina全市场实时快照 asof=20261023) | 原样本反推口径见上方 JSON 的 sector_map_source
## 位置与量能判读（量是因价是果）
- 扫描170只: 强势>3% 1只 / 弱势<-3% 5只 / 放量异动(量比>1.5) 2只（阈值=脚本口径）
- 位置五维·MA60分位: 低位<20% 6只 / 中位20-65% 2只 / 高位>65% 0只（规范口径 position_layer 20/65, 低位看价顶部看量）
- 量能三标准 [数据日20261023·源S1 sina全市场实时快照]: 今日 5.66亿手 vs 昨 9.17亿手 -38.2% | 近1220日分位 3% → 放量异动=增量确认候选(需突破配合) | 缩量止跌: 未触发(量缩, 深成指-1.70%) | 天量见天价: 未触发(分位3% vs 触发线95%)
- 逃顶预警0只: 无 → 高位看量, 触发票按减仓预案处理
## 主线识别·三漏斗+同比双层比
- 板块间(个股反推): 热度TOP 白酒均值1.53%(上涨比0.79) vs 冷 其他均值-12.99%（有效板块111个 区间+1.53% → -12.99%）
- 板块内双层比: TOP板块异动股 603919(+4.9%)/603198(+5.7%)/000995(+3.1%)（个股行情≠板块行为, 以分化>5pp为界看个股）
- 三漏斗①板块成交额>500亿 [数据日20261023·源S1 sina全市场实时快照]: 热度TOP 白酒 65亿✗ | 保险 32亿✗ | 机场 3亿✗ → 全市场过门 4/111 个行业; 成交TOP(资金在哪): 半导体1014亿 / 元器件910亿 / 通信设备635亿
- 三漏斗②产业链联动 [源 industry_chain 图谱·关键词+成分股归并, 局限:非官方产业链口径]: 白酒→白酒 同链1/2同向(白酒+1.5/酒店餐饮-2.5)✗ | 保险→无链映射·同业归并 5只 上涨5/下跌0 均值+0.5% [联动不可判·局限缺产业链映射] | 机场→无链映射·同业归并 5只 上涨3/下跌2 均值-0.1% [联动不可判·局限缺产业链映射] → 可判过门 0/3
- 三漏斗③热度持续≥3天 [热度日=当日行业均值跑赢全市场均值; 序列源 sector_daily 5年+当日快照]: 白酒 连续10天(近5日 -1.2/+1.2/+1.9/+0.5/+1.5)✓ | 保险 连续2天(近5日 -1.8/-0.2/+0.0/+0.7/+0.5)✗ | 机场 连续1天(近5日 -0.1/-1.4/+0.5/-0.4/-0.1)✗ → 过门 1/3
- 三漏斗合成(TOP3, 数据层只给事实): 白酒:①不过/②不过/③过 | 保险:①不过/②待判(缺映射)/③不过 | 机场:①不过/②待判(缺映射)/③不过 → 三关全过 0/3 (主线由 AI 裁定, 数据层不下结论)
- 未过三漏斗 → 动态榜只当异动线索, 不当主线结论、不追高
## 情绪周期锚·仓位与证伪
- 涨停家数: 18 | 跌停: 91 | 炸板: 9 → 炸板率33.3% | 连板高度: 3板(600838连3板 / 000678连2板 / 002535连2板, 回看5个有池交易日) | 情绪七度: 极度恐慌→极度恐慌 [ftshare 20261023] → 五阶段(冰点/修复/发酵/高潮/退潮)由 AI 按此裁定, 数据层不下定论
- 仓位=min(大盘阶段,板块数): 大盘阶段: 闸门: ⛔ 关（只看大盘，不看板块/个股） ←源链路09:30闸门@2026-10-23 09:30:05 | 有效板块111个(源S1 sina全市场实时快照 asof=20261023) → 只给板块档, 仓位待闸门定
- 证伪: 若白酒次日高开低走且量比>1.5 → 按一日游处理不追; 若逃顶票X继续放量新高 → 逃顶判据复核
📊 因果基因
- 数据源: data_hub(mootdx 分时/分钟K + westock 日K) + stock_basic.industry 板块映射 + 三漏斗字段(sina全市场实时→tushare日线→sector_daily 5年 三级降级阶梯; 情绪=ftshare涨跌停池; 闸门=链路09:30闸门; 产业链=industry_chain图谱)
- 分析路径: 10:30 全市场异动扫描 → 位置五维(MA60分位, 规范口径20/65) → 三漏斗(板块成交额/产业链联动/热度序列)+同比双层比 → 情绪锚仓位
- 判断: 缺字段一律标 [不可用] 并写明降级原因, 不下结论；三漏斗未过 → 动态榜只当异动线索不当主线
[chain] 10:30主线 已写入 /tmp/fugui_cron_output/
```
## ⚠️ 资金面三问（强制·2026-10-21 老板令：先答三问再引数据）
凡输出含资金面/主力行为判断（谁在买、主力意图、建仓/洗盘/出货/承接），必须在判断段**开头**先答三问：
1. **谁在买？** 主力四分类：汪汪队（维稳，反向指标）/ 大机构（产业逻辑，慢而长）/ 某庄（独立控盘）/ 游资（事件驱动，快）——不同类型决定你该用什么节奏跟。
2. **为什么买？** 位置+意图：低位建仓（吸筹/试盘）/ 中位洗盘（换手降阻力）/ 高位派发（借势出货）。同一量价在不同位置含义相反。
3. **买了之后会做什么？** 判断下一步动作：继续加仓 / 洗盘 / 拉升 / 出货——这是"脚印会变，走路的人不变"的那层意图。
**硬约束**：
- 三问是**答案层**，数据是**证据层**。先答三问，再用数据佐证；不得只报数据不下意图判断。
- 禁止把意图推断问题降级为"缺数据"问题——归纳法（阈值→回测→期望值）回答不了演绎问题（主力为什么这么做）。
- 三问答不出（证据不足）→ 明写"意图不明，不判断"，禁止硬编一个主力动机。
---
你是富贵盘中分析师（10:30 主线漏斗）。上方【数据摘要】来自零token动态扫描：全市场异动（涨幅/放量/逃顶）、个股反推的板块热度、位置五维、三漏斗字段、情绪锚，以及上游链路（06:00晨报/08:00四维/09:30闸门/10:00感知）。
严格三段，先事实后判断：
① 现在资金在哪些板块：抄数据事实（热度TOP板块与均值、异动股、放量股、逃顶警报），做板块间与板块内的同比双层比（同比=主力探测器：同等条件谁跌得少涨得高）。
② 主线裁定+个股：过三漏斗（成交额>500亿/产业链联动/持续≥3天）才叫主线，没过就只当异动线索不追高；给出主线板块、每板块首期龙或补涨龙候选最多3只、匹配战法（登高望远/现龙在田/龙凤呈祥/三振）与60分钟入场观察点；环境仓位档必须给。
③ 证伪：主线假设与个股候选各配「如果价格走了对面我就错了」的可核对条件（价格/量能阈值+到期时点）。
必落 judgment_ledger：source=盘中-1030主线、date、direction、horizon、trigger、falsify、judgment、reason 三要素齐全（写入端拒收空件）。补正后不得清理隔离表：禁止对 judgments_rejected 执行任何 DELETE/UPDATE——它是复发台账，同 key 再拒由写入端自动记 last_seen/reject_count，人工删行=销毁证据（2026-10-20 根修接入）。
数据字段标「需补数据」时如实说缺字段、不许脑补数字；上游链路 ❌未产出要在结论里写明断链影响。
**Response Characters:** 2041
## Response
# 盘中10:30 主线漏斗 · 2026-10-23
## ① 资金在哪些板块（事实层）
**大盘底色**：深成指 11100 点 **-2.26%**（10:30，再创新低）· 创业板 -2.64% · 24个样本板块**全绿** · 111行业口径区间 **+1.53%（白酒）→ -12.99%（其他）**
**资金聚集在哪（成交额口径）**：
- 过500亿门的仅4个行业，**全是大跌科技**：半导体 1014亿(-4.37%) / 元器件 910亿(-5.48%) / 通信设备 635亿
- 高成交+深跌 = **存量资金出逃中的高换手**，买方是被动承接盘，不是主力进场
**同比双层比（跌得少=主力探测器）**：
- **板块间**：同等大盘下跌条件下，**白酒(S1全市场口径)+1.53%、上涨比0.79、热度连续10天跑赢** = 全市场唯一逆势方向 → 大机构防御性驻留迹象（慢而长的产业/避险逻辑）。⚠️ 口径分歧：样本反推口径白酒-0.65%、涨跌比0.33，两口径打架，板块内非普涨，按谨慎处理
- **板块内**：白酒TOP异动 603198+5.7% / 603919+4.9% / 000995+3.1%，分化约4pp **<5pp门槛** = **板块级行为**（真抗跌）；对比 002077 +10.01% vs 半导体-4.37%，分化14.4pp = **纯个股行为**，不能当板块信号用
**异动与情绪**：涨停仅1只（002077，量比2.72）· 放量异动2只 · 逃顶警报0只（高位票本来就0只）· 跌幅前5全是**低位(0-9%)"下降趋势(反弹)"票** = 低位反弹票补跌 · 涨停18 / **跌停91** / 炸板率33.3% / 连板高度3板 / 情绪七度 = **极度恐慌** · 全市场量能-38.2%、1220日分位3% = 缩量阴跌，抛压未放但买盘消失
**资金面三问**（先答三问再引数据）：
- **谁在买？** 白酒=大机构防御性驻留（连续10天+缩量市逆势）；002077=游资/独立资金（板块崩它独拉，非汪汪队非大机构板块级建仓）；科技的高成交=出逃换手，接盘方非主力
- **为什么买？** 白酒=低位避险驻留；002077=中位52%拉涨停，**不是建仓位置，意图不明，不硬编动机**
- **买了之后会做什么？** 白酒=无增量前维持横盘抗跌，量能过门才可能升主线；002077=游资快进快出节奏，次日不分歧即撤
## ② 主线裁定 + 个股
**三漏斗裁定：全过 0/3 → 今日无主线**。白酒 ①成交额65亿✗ ②产业链联动1/2同向✗（酒店餐饮-2.5%）③持续10天✓；保险、机场 ①③均✗。**全部降级为异动线索，不追高**。
**环境仓位档：0成（空仓观察）** — 闸门⛔关（09:30链路：深成指近3日未止跌+今日量缩-38.2%，两条件均不满足）× 主线0个 × 下跌态0-2成档内取0。观察层永不关闭，影子池照常记录：
1. **白酒（板块级·影子池第一位）**：升级触发=成交额破500亿+同链转正+热度维持。60分钟观察点：下午若60分钟K收复今日均价且量能回升 → 记为"闸门开后首查方向"（只记录不动手）
2. **002077（个股级·观察记录）**：60分钟证伪线=跌回12.4（涨停价13.08下方5%）且放量 → 游资撤退确认不碰；缩量横在均价上=继续观察。**闸门关不给买点**
**数据降级披露**：板块映射 mootdx 无有效行→本地兜底；保险/机场缺产业链映射 [联动不可判]；样本反推口径(170只)与S1全市场口径(111行业)白酒数据分歧已标注。上游09:30闸门链路正常产出，无断链。
## ③ 证伪（到期时点=收盘价核对）
| 假设 | 如果价格走了对面我就错了 | 到期 |
|:---|:---|:---|
| 大盘回避·0成 | 今收盘深成指跌幅收窄至1%以内 **且** 量能超昨9.17亿手 **且** 跌停<30家 → 闸门条件出现满足迹象，次日9:30复评可转试探；继续放量新低则回避续持 | 10-23 15:00 |
| 白酒持续性 | 收盘白酒均值转负(<-1%) 或热度天数中断 → 作废移出观察；反向：成交额破500亿+同链转正 → 升主线候选复评 | 10-23 15:00 |
| 002077 游资假设 | 10-24 高开低走收阴且量比>1.5 → 一日游确认移出影子池；升级：续封板或缩量强整理且半导体均值收窄至-1%以内 → 升板块回暖先锋 | 10-24 收盘 |
---
✅ 已落账 judgment_ledger 3条（id 2875-2877，source=盘中-1030主线，回读已验，三要素齐全）：大盘环境·回避 / 白酒·回避 / 002077·中性观察。