← 归档索引 · 2026-10-30 10:39 · 动态市场扫描-10:30
# Cron Job: 动态市场扫描-10:30
**Job ID:** 0dcde44e6c8e
**Run Time:** 2026-10-30 10:39:46
**Schedule:** 30 10 * * 1-5
**Prompt Characters:** 54195
## Prompt
[IMPORTANT: The user has invoked the "taoge-four-layer-funnel" skill, indicating they want you to follow its instructions. The full skill content is loaded below.]
---
name: taoge-four-layer-funnel
description: "涛哥四层漏斗——有主力+可持续+找介入+持有管理。收到个股/板块分析请求时加载，按四层漏斗逐层判定。"
tags: [主力, 买点, 漏斗, 持仓管理, 涛哥体系]
created: 2026-09-10
---
# 涛哥四层漏斗分析框架
> 来源：老板2026-09-10对涛哥直播深度学习后构建
> 原则：从"找便宜股"切换成"在不低的位置找安全的行为结构"
## 前置铁律
```
R0: 大盘没稳 → 全部信号降一级
判断标准：深成指近3日是否止跌+止跌日放量
两个条件都满足 → 看板块/个股
任一不满足 → 只看大盘
```
---
## 第1层：确认"有主力"（不问价格问行为）
四查清单：
```
查1 低点建仓证据
条件：波段低点量价异常≥3次
标准：vol > MA20(vol) * 1.3 且 pct_chg > 0
判定：次数/数量 > 板块均值 = 主力最喜欢
查2 高点无逃跑
条件：波段高点卖出量 < 建仓量 20%
60-70% = 趋势转跌（逃跑）
20-60% = 调整（分歧）
<20% = 中继（洗盘）
查3 吸售状态
条件：下跌轨迹由快变慢（跌幅递减）
表现：连续阴线实体缩小+量缩
含义：老主力不舍得卖=抛压枯竭
查4 板块验证
条件：多板块主力分布+抱团 = 趋势前置
警告：单一细分独走 = 警惕（可能是个股行为非主力行为）
```
**通过标准**：查1+查2同时通过 → 进入第2层
**否决**：查2判定"逃跑" → 直接退出
---
## 第2层：过滤"可持续"（有主力≠能持续）
```
判1 共识五阶段定位
① 聪明钱建仓期 → 吃鱼身（最佳介入）
② 机构进来不走期 → 吃鱼腹（可介入）
③ 机构加速拉升期 → 鱼尾上半（轻仓跟）
④ 散户共识期 → 鱼尾下半（反向指标，减仓）
⑤ 主力出货期 → 不参与
判2 内生动力三要素
需求旺 ✓
供给不足 ✓
量价提升 ✓
→ 三要素≥2 = 强驱动
→ 政策驱动型只给反弹级预期
判3 硬锚≥2个
capex / BD授权 / 单机价值量 / 订单 / 财报连续性
挂不上锚的叙事 = 定性为故事（非主线）
判4 主线性 vs 热点性
主线性 = 潜伏建仓 + 硬基本面 + 持续 → 重仓死缠
热点性 = 事件刺激 + 无潜伏 + 短暂 → 不参与
判5 环境折价
大盘信号 → 全部降一级
④的信号当⑤用，⑤的信号无效
```
**通过标准**：判4判定"主线性" → 进入第3层
**否决**：判4判定"热点性" → 不参与
---
## 第3层：找介入点（支撑→止跌→买点三级）
### 支撑点（事前画防线）
```
锚1：主力换手成本区（前建仓成本区）
锚2：二线支撑+边际改善
锚3：前低/波段低点（"砸不破前低"=V型买点一半）
锚4：均线只做定位（MA20/60失守=结构警报，但方向判断只认量价异常）
```
### 止跌点（行为确认，不是猜的）
```
① 下跌动能减弱（吸售）+ 缩量不破位
② 小额多次回流出现（机构做加法）
③ 低位看小时级订单流（散户被吓跑，日线量不大是常态）
```
### 买点（三买点白名单，外不看）
```
买点① V型洗盘（底部三步）
条件：砸下来不破前低 + 下午收回 + 缩量
60分钟级别当日进
性质：左侧偏右
买点② 龙形流入共振
条件：当日大额单次流入 + 板块大盘量能共振 + 非加速末端
性质：右侧确认，胜率最高
买点③ 回踩二次确认
条件：首波拉升后缩量回踩 + 不破主力成本区
先过七维鉴别（缩量洗盘70%+高位强势71%+单日大单50%降权）
性质：补货非出货
```
### 三问前置（买前必答）
```
Q1 主力在吗？（第1层已判）
Q2 成长在吗？（第2层已判）
Q3 止损多少？（买点必须能安放可承受止损）
→ 追高无合法止损 = 放弃
→ 仓位与确定性走
```
---
## 第4层：持有管理
```
双否决：
基本面未变 ∧ 主力无坏行为 = 持有
任一破坏 → 行动
止损三轨（靠纪律兜底不靠买得便宜兜底）：
轨1：破关键支撑位（主力成本区/前低）
轨2：高点出逃信号（卖出>建仓量60%）
轨3：环境崩坏（大盘退潮+板块出逃）
```
---
## 执行顺序
```
① 拉大盘环境 → 判R0
② 拉目标个股60日数据
③ 第1层四查 → 有主力？
④ 第2层五判 → 可持续？
⑤ 第3层找介入点 → 支撑/止跌/买点
⑥ 三问前置 → 能安放止损？
⑦ 第4层持有管理 → 双否决
⑧ 输出：买点+止损+仓位+证伪条件
```
---
## 工具映射
| 层 | 工具 | 状态 |
|:---|:-----|:-----|
| R0 | market_state.py | ✅ |
| 查1-4 | mainforce_check.py（待建） | 🔨 |
| 判1 | consensus_stage.py（待建） | 🔨 |
| 判2-5 | 判断标准在框架中，可直接判 | ✅ |
| 买点 | bottom_structure_check.py + pullback_screener.py | ✅ |
| 止损 | position_guard.py | ✅ |
| 持有 | position_guard.py双否决 | ✅ |
**P0缺口**：mainforce_check.py + consensus_stage.py
[IMPORTANT: The user has invoked the "m60-tactical-entry" skill, indicating they want you to follow its instructions. The full skill content is loaded below.]
---
name: m60-tactical-entry
title: 60分钟战术层 — 精确买卖点捕捉
description: 60分钟找买卖点。日线定位置+主力，60分钟定精确入场/出场时机。收到个股分析请求时加载。
tags: [60分钟, 买卖点, 战术层, 盘感]
version: 1.0
author: Hermes Agent
date: 2026-08-27
license: internal
metadata:
hermes:
tags: [trading, intraday, entry-exit]
related_skills: [pangan-muscle-memory, pan-gan-signals]
---
## When to Use
- 个股日线分析通过后，需要精确买卖点时
- 用户问"什么时候买""什么时候卖""今天走势怎么看"
- 盘中异动捕捉
# 60分钟战术层 — 精确买卖点
> 周线看方向，日线定位置+主力，60分钟找买卖点。
> 日线告诉你"这只票有主力"，60分钟告诉你"主力此刻在动手"。
## 一、三层时间框架
```
周线（参考）→ 日线（主战场）→ 60分钟（战术层）
↓ ↓ ↓
大方向 位置+主力 买卖时机
不决策 决策依据 执行依据
```
**铁律：不跳层。** 没过日线分析，不看60分钟。
## 二、60分钟买入信号（三类）
### 信号1：率先启动
```
条件：
□ 板块内大盘还在跌/震荡时，这只票60分钟先拉大阳
□ 涨幅>3%且量比前一日同时段放大
□ 是板块内第一个出现60分钟异动的
含义：有人在抢筹，板块联动的领头羊
动作：观察，等洗盘确认后买
```
### 信号2：V型洗盘（核心买点）
```
条件：
□ 早盘60分钟砸盘（跌幅>3%）
□ 洗盘低点不破前日低点（主力维护）
□ 下午60分钟拉回，收盘价≥开盘价
含义：主力在洗浮筹，不是出货
动作：下午拉回过程中买入（洗盘低点+3%~5%区间）
```
**实证：生益科技8/26**
- 09:30 高开128.62
- 10:30 砸到124.33（-3.4%）
- 洗盘低点124 > 前日低点122 → 守住 ✅
- 15:00 收回130.01 → V型洗盘确认 ✅
- 买入点：129（下午拉回过程中）
### 信号3：缩量横盘后突破
```
条件：
□ 连续2-3根60分钟K线缩量横盘（振幅<2%）
□ 某根60分钟突然放量突破平台上沿
□ 突破时量比>1.5
含义：主力洗完盘开始推
动作：突破确认后买入
```
## 三、60分钟卖出信号（三类）
### 信号1：高位放量滞涨
```
条件：
□ 连续2根60分钟放量（量比>1.5）但涨幅缩小
□ 或出现60分钟长上影线
含义：主力在高位派发
动作：减仓50%+
```
### 信号2：跌破60分钟平台
```
条件：
□ 横盘后跌破60分钟最低点
□ 收盘价跌破60分钟MA20
含义：支撑破了
动作：清仓
```
### 信号3：冲高回落破均线
```
条件：
□ 快速拉高后回落
□ 跌破60分钟MA20且不能收回
含义：短线见顶
动作：减仓或清仓
```
## 四、60分钟+日线联动判断
| 日线位置 | 60分钟信号 | 动作 |
|:---------|:----------|:-----|
| 低位 | 率先启动/V型洗盘 | 买入（主力在吸筹） |
| 低位 | 放量突破 | 加仓（主升浪启动） |
| 中位 | 缩量横盘后突破 | 持有/轻仓加 |
| 中位 | 高位放量滞涨 | 减仓 |
| 高位 | 任何买入信号 | 不追（高位非买点纪律，需回踩+主力确认，非位置=危险） |
| 高位 | 跌破平台 | 清仓 |
## 五、实操流程
```
每天收盘后（15:30-16:00）：
1. 日线分析通过的票 → 拉60分钟数据
2. 检查三个买入信号（有没有？）
3. 检查三个卖出信号（要不要走？）
4. 记录判断 → --save落台账
盘中（可选）：
1. 10:00 看60分钟第一根K线（方向确认器）
2. 11:00 看有没有V型洗盘信号
3. 14:00 看下午是否收回
4. 14:30 最终确认
```
## 六、关键提醒
**60分钟是战术层，不是决策层。** 它告诉你"什么时候动手"，不告诉你"该不该动手"。
该不该动手 → 日线+大盘决定
什么时候动手 → 60分钟决定
**两者缺一不可：**
- 只看日线不看60分钟 → 买在高点/卖在低点
- 只看60分钟不看日线 → 在大盘暴跌时追涨
[IMPORTANT: The user has invoked the "domain-trust-gate" skill, indicating they want you to follow its instructions. The full skill content is loaded below.]
---
name: domain-trust-gate
description: 低可信域(zhuli/technical)判断只记录不作决策依据。AI判断cron加载此门禁。
version: 1.0.0
author: Hermes Agent（富贵系统）
license: MIT
metadata:
hermes:
tags: [trading, judgment, knowledge-trust, gate]
---
# 知识域降权门禁（2026-10-30 老板令「全部落地」·C项）
## When to Use
AI判断类cron（盘中扫描/收盘定论/日复盘/周复盘）在引用知识域或历史判断作决策支撑前加载；任何要拿 zhuli/technical 域知识下结论的场合。
实测依据（北极星2026-10-30，judgments.db逐条回测非声明；★域×源二维口径）：
- 可信：market 68.6% / wuwei 63.5%（其中四维扫描×wuwei 65% n=429、×market 72% n=243 = 资金面量价扫描主力，健康）
- 中等：taoge 53.0%
- **低可信域级标签：technical 41.2% / zhuli 20.1% —— ⚠️已被实测证明是单源污染**：zhuli域144条里124条(86%)是daily_verdict(命中15%，看多腿已停)，四维扫描×technical 52%并不差
- 因此降权必须走**源×域二维**（decision_grade 已内置：行内带source时用该组合实算，n≥20才算；样本不足回落域级并保守降权）
- unknown（样本<20）= 未知 ≠ 可信
## 规则（强制）
1. 低可信（源×域组合命中<45%）与 unknown 的知识/判断【只记录、不作决策依据】——不得作为主线裁定、个股推荐、仓位建议的支撑。
2. 必须引用时，明写「低可信组合（实测命中率X%），仅记录不采信」。
3. 机械查询（不凭记忆）：`cd ~/stock_workspace && ./.venv/bin/python3 -c "from knowledge_domain_trust import domain_trust; print(domain_trust(source='四维扫描'))"`
4. 决策侧分流 API：`decision_grade(rows)` → (决策可用, 降权记录)；rows带source字段自动走二维。
## 为什么
该两域按判断逐条回测命中率低于抛硬币 = 信它 = 系统性反向。
## 解降条件
域命中率从 judgments.db 实算回升 ≥45% 且持续4周（每周 n≥20）→ 复核后可解降。
The user has provided the following instruction alongside the skill invocation: [IMPORTANT: You are running as a scheduled cron job. DELIVERY: Your final response will be automatically delivered to the user — do NOT use send_message or try to deliver the output yourself. Just produce your report/output as your final response and the system handles the rest. SILENT: If there is genuinely nothing new to report, respond with exactly "[SILENT]" (nothing else) to suppress delivery. [SILENT] is a literal ASCII control token — never translate or rephrase it, whatever language the rest of your answer uses. Never combine [SILENT] with content — either report your findings normally, or say [SILENT] and nothing more. FAILURE: If a delegated child fails and this cron run must be recorded as failed, put [CRON_FAILURE] on the first line by itself, then explain the child failure on following lines. RECURSION: This is a run of an EXISTING scheduled job — execute the task now. NEVER create or update a cron job because of recurring or future-schedule language in the task prompt below; treat phrasing like "each Monday" or "every day at 9" as context for this run, not as a request to schedule another job.]
## Output from job 'f06f0ff60f0c'
The following is the most recent output from a preceding cron job. Use it as context for your analysis.
```
# Cron Job: 进化简报-每日22:55（回测结果→明日校准）
**Job ID:** f06f0ff60f0c
**Run Time:** 2026-10-29 22:55:59
**Mode:** no_agent (script)
---
📈 进化简报 2026-10-29（窗口14天）
回测率: 100.0%（376/376 条近期判断已回测）
累计: 落账2527 已决1845 待决0
总命中: 49.9% [45~55%] n=379 （上期 50.9%） | 平均超额 +0.06pp
── 分方向 ──
回避 n=180 命中 54.4% [47~62%] 超额-0.1pp
看空 n= 63 命中 38.1% [27~50%] 超额+1.2pp ⚠️谨慎
中性 n= 60 命中 60.0% [47~71%] 超额-0.8pp ★可信
看多 n= 54 命中 44.4% [32~58%] 超额+0.0pp ⚠️谨慎
观察 n= 20 命中 35.0% [18~57%] 超额+1.5pp ⚠️谨慎
── 来源可信度（n≥10 才列）──
- 四维扫描 n=175 51.4%
- 节点转折+ftshare扫描-21:45 n= 33 54.5%
✗ 量价训练-每日提醒 n= 24 33.3%
- 盘中-1130午盘 n= 23 47.8%
✗ 龙头融合+确认链-21:40 n= 20 40.0%
✗ good_position_scanner n= 20 35.0%
✗ 晚间统一扫描-21:30 n= 12 25.0%
✓ 盘中-1400午后 n= 11 63.6%
⚪ 未排期部件（2026-10-17 裁决: jobs.json 里 0 个 cron，不计入停摆；恢复=先排期再移回 LOOP_PARTS）:
· 超额制全量重算
· 经验学习闭环
· 每日判断练习仪(老板10-05指定)
用法: 下判断前先看本简报 —— 上面✅的来源可以更信，✗的来源要打折；🔴停摆部件是系统盲区。
```
## Script Output
The following data was collected by a pre-run script. Use it as context for your analysis.
```
{
"scan_time": "2026-10-30 10:30",
"trading_hours": true,
"sector_map_source": "stock_basic.industry(mootdx空→本地兜底)",
"sectors": {
"sectors_top": [
{
"name": "白酒",
"avg_pct": 3.12,
"up_ratio": 0.86,
"hot_count": 7,
"hot_stocks": [
"000568(+8.4%)",
"600702(+4.8%)",
"600809(+4.5%)"
]
},
{
"name": "中成药",
"avg_pct": 1.64,
"up_ratio": 0.8,
"hot_count": 10,
"hot_stocks": [
"600285(+10.0%)"
]
},
{
"name": "服饰",
"avg_pct": 1.49,
"up_ratio": 1.0,
"hot_count": 2,
"hot_stocks": []
},
{
"name": "广告包装",
"avg_pct": 1.32,
"up_ratio": 1.0,
"hot_count": 2,
"hot_stocks": []
},
{
"name": "啤酒",
"avg_pct": 0.85,
"up_ratio": 1.0,
"hot_count": 2,
"hot_stocks": []
},
{
"name": "化工原料",
"avg_pct": 0.73,
"up_ratio": 0.4,
"hot_count": 5,
"hot_stocks": [
"300041(+6.8%)",
"688353(-3.7%)"
]
}
],
"sectors_bottom": [
{
"name": "互联网",
"avg_pct": -4.6,
"up_ratio": 0.0,
"hot_count": 3,
"hot_stocks": [
"300043(-5.7%)",
"300467(-4.1%)",
"000681(-4.0%)"
]
},
{
"name": "通信设备",
"avg_pct": -4.42,
"up_ratio": 0.0,
"hot_count": 5,
"hot_stocks": [
"300502(-7.5%)",
"300548(-5.5%)",
"601869(-4.4%)",
"300134(-3.1%)"
]
},
{
"name": "IT设备",
"avg_pct": -3.32,
"up_ratio": 0.0,
"hot_count": 2,
"hot_stocks": [
"300552(-5.7%)"
]
},
{
"name": "半导体",
"avg_pct": -2.29,
"up_ratio": 0.09,
"hot_count": 23,
"hot_stocks": [
"688711(-6.0%)",
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"pos": "14%",
"age": "45岁(温和拉升)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 2.0
},
{
"code": "000404",
"close": 6.22,
"pct": -0.32,
"vol_ratio": 0.4,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "45岁(温和拉升)",
"btype": "下降趋势",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 3.0
},
{
"code": "002061",
"close": 3.2,
"pct": 0.31,
"vol_ratio": 0.46,
"pos": "2%",
"age": "25岁(健康拉升)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 9.0
},
{
"code": "600987",
"close": 6.5,
"pct": 0.31,
"vol_ratio": 0.32,
"pos": "48%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 2.0
},
{
"code": "002884",
"close": 15.05,
"pct": 0.27,
"vol_ratio": 0.27,
"pos": "9%",
"age": "45岁(温和拉升)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 1.0
},
{
"code": "603515",
"close": 14.67,
"pct": -0.27,
"vol_ratio": 0.33,
"pos": "10%",
"age": "35岁(正常拉升)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 0.0
},
{
"code": "301246",
"close": 15.46,
"pct": -0.26,
"vol_ratio": 0.36,
"pos": "5%",
"age": "35岁(正常拉升)",
"btype": "上升趋势（回踩）",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 3.0
},
{
"code": "300435",
"close": 12.66,
"pct": -0.24,
"vol_ratio": 0.33,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "下降趋势",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 3.0
},
{
"code": "002177",
"close": 5.1,
"pct": -0.2,
"vol_ratio": 0.31,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "35岁(正常拉升)",
"btype": "上升趋势",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 7.0
},
{
"code": "300241",
"close": 5.24,
"pct": 0.19,
"vol_ratio": 0.36,
"pos": "3%",
"age": "35岁(正常拉升)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 8.0
},
{
"code": "600820",
"close": 5.23,
"pct": -0.19,
"vol_ratio": 0.29,
"pos": "13%",
"age": "35岁(正常拉升)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 5.0
},
{
"code": "300219",
"close": 5.92,
"pct": 0.17,
"vol_ratio": 0.34,
"pos": "1%",
"age": "45岁(温和拉升)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 5.0
},
{
"code": "002001",
"close": 25.4,
"pct": -0.16,
"vol_ratio": 0.34,
"pos": "7%",
"age": "35岁(正常拉升)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 7.0
},
{
"code": "601200",
"close": 6.7,
"pct": -0.15,
"vol_ratio": 0.38,
"pos": "11%",
"age": "35岁(正常拉升)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 2.0
},
{
"code": "600600",
"close": 50.07,
"pct": 0.14,
"vol_ratio": 0.47,
"pos": "8%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 2.0
},
{
"code": "600346",
"close": 15.93,
"pct": 0.13,
"vol_ratio": 0.35,
"pos": "16%",
"age": "35岁(正常拉升)",
"btype": "下降趋势",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 8.0
},
{
"code": "000885",
"close": 11.82,
"pct": -0.08,
"vol_ratio": 0.42,
"pos": "16%",
"age": "35岁(正常拉升)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 1.0
},
{
"code": "002287",
"close": 18.78,
"pct": -0.05,
"vol_ratio": 0.4,
"pos": "0%",
"age": "55岁(衰竭减速)",
"btype": "横盘震荡",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 1.0
},
{
"code": "603659",
"close": 19.84,
"pct": -0.05,
"vol_ratio": 0.38,
"pos": "15%",
"age": "45岁(温和拉升)",
"btype": "下降趋势",
"escape": "",
"vol_t": 8.0
}
],
"total_scanned": 152
}
}
📊 因果基因（脚本自证）
- 数据源: mootdx block 概念板块映射(空则 stock_basic.industry 本地兜底) + DataHub.get_daily(60日) + /tmp/dynamic_scan.json缓存
- 分析路径: 个股涨跌反推板块热度 + 涨幅/跌幅/放量/逃顶检测(position_utils/wei_laoshi_patterns)
- 判断: 涨幅最大/跌幅最大/放量异动/逃顶预警四类清单(JSON)，供盘中决策引用
[funnel-merge] sectors ← 111个行业 (全市场行业·S1 sina全市场实时快照 asof=20261030) | 原样本反推口径见上方 JSON 的 sector_map_source
## 位置与量能判读（量是因价是果）
- 扫描152只: 强势>3% 6只 / 弱势<-3% 5只 / 放量异动(量比>1.5) 5只（阈值=脚本口径）
- 位置五维·MA60分位: 低位<20% 5只 / 中位20-65% 8只 / 高位>65% 3只（规范口径 position_layer 20/65, 低位看价顶部看量）
- 量能三标准 [数据日20261030·源S1 sina全市场实时快照]: 今日 5.25亿手 vs 昨 9.82亿手 -46.6% | 近1225日分位 0% → 放量异动=增量确认候选(需突破配合) | 缩量止跌: 未触发(量缩, 深成指-1.48%) | 天量见天价: 未触发(分位0% vs 触发线95%)
- 逃顶预警0只: 无 → 高位看量, 触发票按减仓预案处理
## 主线识别·三漏斗+同比双层比
- 板块间(个股反推): 热度TOP 其他均值12.31%(上涨比1.0) vs 冷 影视音像均值-3.89%（有效板块111个 区间+12.31% → -3.89%）
- 板块内双层比: TOP板块异动股 301139(+12.3%)（个股行情≠板块行为, 以分化>5pp为界看个股）
- 三漏斗①板块成交额>500亿 [数据日20261030·源S1 sina全市场实时快照]: 热度TOP 其他 0亿✗ | 白酒 116亿✗ | 渔业 15亿✗ → 全市场过门 3/111 个行业; 成交TOP(资金在哪): 元器件951亿 / 半导体939亿 / 通信设备639亿
- 三漏斗②产业链联动 [源 industry_chain 图谱·关键词+成分股归并, 局限:非官方产业链口径]: 其他→无链映射·同业归并 1只 上涨1/下跌0 均值+12.3% [联动不可判·局限缺产业链映射] | 白酒→白酒 同链2/2同向(白酒+4.1/酒店餐饮+1.7)✓ | 渔业→无链映射·同业归并 7只 上涨6/下跌0 均值+2.9% [联动不可判·局限缺产业链映射] → 可判过门 1/3
- 三漏斗③热度持续≥3天 [热度日=当日行业均值跑赢全市场均值; 序列源 sector_daily 5年+当日快照]: 其他 连续1天(近5日 +108.5/+53.8/+13.0/-12.0/+12.3)✗ | 白酒 连续3天(近5日 -1.4/-2.9/+2.5/+2.5/+4.1)✓ | 渔业 连续2天(近5日 +3.0/-4.6/-1.2/+2.1/+2.9)✗ → 过门 1/3
- 三漏斗合成(TOP3, 数据层只给事实): 其他:①不过/②待判(缺映射)/③不过 | 白酒:①不过/②过/③过 | 渔业:①不过/②待判(缺映射)/③不过 → 三关全过 0/3 (主线由 AI 裁定, 数据层不下结论)
- 未过三漏斗 → 动态榜只当异动线索, 不当主线结论、不追高
## 情绪周期锚·仓位与证伪
- 涨停家数: 34 | 跌停: 33 | 炸板: 17 → 炸板率33.3% | 连板高度: 5板(001219连5板 / 002172连3板 / 603131连3板, 回看5个有池交易日) | 情绪七度: 恐慌→恐慌 [ftshare 20261030] → 五阶段(冰点/修复/发酵/高潮/退潮)由 AI 按此裁定, 数据层不下定论
- 仓位=min(大盘阶段,板块数): 大盘阶段: 闸门: ⛔ 关（观察照常，只记录不动钱） ←源链路09:30闸门@2026-10-30 09:31:00 | 有效板块111个(源S1 sina全市场实时快照 asof=20261030) → 只给板块档, 仓位待闸门定
- 证伪: 若其他次日高开低走且量比>1.5 → 按一日游处理不追; 若逃顶票X继续放量新高 → 逃顶判据复核
📊 因果基因
- 数据源: data_hub(mootdx 分时/分钟K + westock 日K) + stock_basic.industry 板块映射 + 三漏斗字段(sina全市场实时→tushare日线→sector_daily 5年 三级降级阶梯; 情绪=ftshare涨跌停池; 闸门=链路09:30闸门; 产业链=industry_chain图谱)
- 分析路径: 10:30 全市场异动扫描 → 位置五维(MA60分位, 规范口径20/65) → 三漏斗(板块成交额/产业链联动/热度序列)+同比双层比 → 情绪锚仓位
- 判断: 缺字段一律标 [不可用] 并写明降级原因, 不下结论；三漏斗未过 → 动态榜只当异动线索不当主线
[chain] 10:30主线 已写入 /tmp/fugui_cron_output/
```
## ⚠️ 资金面三问（强制·2026-10-21 老板令：先答三问再引数据）
凡输出含资金面/主力行为判断（谁在买、主力意图、建仓/洗盘/出货/承接），必须在判断段**开头**先答三问：
1. **谁在买？** 主力四分类：汪汪队（维稳，反向指标）/ 大机构（产业逻辑，慢而长）/ 某庄（独立控盘）/ 游资（事件驱动，快）——不同类型决定你该用什么节奏跟。
2. **为什么买？** 位置+意图：低位建仓（吸筹/试盘）/ 中位洗盘（换手降阻力）/ 高位派发（借势出货）。同一量价在不同位置含义相反。
3. **买了之后会做什么？** 判断下一步动作：继续加仓 / 洗盘 / 拉升 / 出货——这是"脚印会变，走路的人不变"的那层意图。
**硬约束**：
- 三问是**答案层**，数据是**证据层**。先答三问，再用数据佐证；不得只报数据不下意图判断。
- 禁止把意图推断问题降级为"缺数据"问题——归纳法（阈值→回测→期望值）回答不了演绎问题（主力为什么这么做）。
- 三问答不出（证据不足）→ 明写"意图不明，不判断"，禁止硬编一个主力动机。
---
你是富贵盘中分析师（10:30 主线漏斗）。上方【数据摘要】来自零token动态扫描：全市场异动（涨幅/放量/逃顶）、个股反推的板块热度、位置五维、三漏斗字段、情绪锚，以及上游链路（06:00晨报/08:00四维/09:30闸门/10:00感知）。
严格三段，先事实后判断：
① 现在资金在哪些板块：抄数据事实（热度TOP板块与均值、异动股、放量股、逃顶警报），做板块间与板块内的同比双层比（同比=主力探测器：同等条件谁跌得少涨得高）。
② 主线裁定+个股：过三漏斗（成交额>500亿/产业链联动/持续≥3天）才叫主线，没过就只当异动线索不追高；给出主线板块、每板块首期龙或补涨龙候选最多3只、匹配战法（登高望远/现龙在田/龙凤呈祥/三振）与60分钟入场观察点；环境仓位档必须给。
③ 证伪：主线假设与个股候选各配「如果价格走了对面我就错了」的可核对条件（价格/量能阈值+到期时点）。
必落 judgment_ledger：source=盘中-1030主线、date、direction、horizon、trigger、falsify、judgment、reason 三要素齐全（写入端拒收空件）。补正后不得清理隔离表：禁止对 judgments_rejected 执行任何 DELETE/UPDATE——它是复发台账，同 key 再拒由写入端自动记 last_seen/reject_count，人工删行=销毁证据（2026-10-20 根修接入）。
数据字段标「需补数据」时如实说缺字段、不许脑补数字；上游链路 ❌未产出要在结论里写明断链影响。
## 🔮动作预测格式（强制·2026-10-30 老板令·资金面理解升级）
凡判断含主力意图（建仓/洗盘/拉升/出货），落账时必须同时给【动作预测】：把意图转成可核对的价格/量能动作写进 trigger（例：判断“主力建仓”→“5-20天内放量（量比>2）突破X元”），falsify=反向动作（跌破Z元/缩量阴跌）。意图本身不可回测，动作兑现率可回测——不给动作预测的意图判断=不可证伪=拒落账。
**Response Characters:** 2473
## Response
# 盘中10:30 主线漏斗 · 2026-10-30（周五）
**R0 闸门：⛔ 关**（链路09:30闸门@2026-10-30 09:31:00）→ 大盘+板块+个股照常观察，**不给买点、不建新仓，仓位=0成操作仓（影子池模式）**
---
## ① 资金在哪些板块
**资金面三问（先答三问再引数据）**
- **谁在买？** 没有进攻型买方。成交额全市场前三是元器件951亿/半导体939亿/通信设备639亿，但上涨比只有0.12/0.09/0.00——钱还堆在科技里，方向是**流出**不是流入。真正上涨的是白酒(+3.12%)/中成药(+1.64%)/服饰(+1.49%)，接盘方特征更像**大机构防御调仓+汪汪队稳指数**，不是游资也不是进攻型建仓。
- **为什么买？** 买的是**估值避险**，不是建仓证据。白酒三只异动股全是55岁衰竭减速（000568泸州老窖+8.4%仍在下降趋势、600809汾酒pos 74%），扫描里没出现"波段低点量价异常≥3次"的建仓链。位置是低位回落段的超跌，不是低位建仓段。
- **买了之后会做什么？** 避险资金快进快出。科技一旦企稳就回流，白酒大概率缩量熄火——所以白酒判**持续性存疑**，不判主线。
**事实（脚本口径，152只扫描）**
| 方向 | 板块 | 均值 | 上涨比 | 关键股 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 强 | 白酒 | +3.12% | 0.86 | 000568(+8.4%)/600702(+4.8%)/600809(+4.5%) |
| 强 | 中成药 | +1.64% | 0.80 | **600285(+10%涨停)** |
| 弱 | 互联网 | -4.60% | 0.00 | 300043(-5.7%) |
| 弱 | 通信设备 | -4.42% | 0.00 | 300502(-7.5%) |
| 弱 | 半导体 | -2.29% | 0.09 | 688711(-6.0%)、23只异动 |
**同比双层比**：板块间——白酒跌得少涨得高（深成指-1.38%背景下+3.12%，心法好），科技三板块巨量普跌（心法最差）。板块内——白酒内部无一年轻结构，全是衰竭段反抽；中成药内部只有600285一只"年轻+上升趋势+放量"，属**个股行情≠板块行为**。
**量能**：今日5.25亿手 vs 昨9.82亿手 **-46.6%**，1225日分位**0%**。缩量但深成指-1.38%价未稳 → **缩量止跌未触发**（是买盘缺席，不是抛压枯竭）。逃顶预警0只。
---
## ② 主线裁定 + 个股
**三漏斗：三关全过 0/3 → 今日无主线**
- 白酒：①成交额116亿<500亿 ✗ / ②同链2/2同向 ✓ / ③热度连续3天 ✓ → **0/3，不是主线**
- 其他(+12.31%均值)：①0亿 ✗ / ③仅1天 ✗，且是无产业链映射的归并口径 → 异动线索
- 渔业：①15亿 ✗ / ③2天 ✗ → 异动线索
**裁定：恐慌退潮 + 防御轮动，市场无主线。** 情绪七度恐慌→恐慌，涨停34/跌停33/炸板率33.3%，连板高度5板。动态榜只当异动线索，**不追高**。
**观察候选（闸门关，只记录不动钱）**
| 标的 | 结构 | 匹配战法 | 60分钟入场观察点（闸门开后才生效） |
|---|---|---|---|
| 600285 羚锐制药 | 25岁健康拉升+上升趋势回踩+量比2.4涨停，pos **76%高位** | 回踩二次确认（买点③） | 缩量回踩不破20.0（=22.0/1.1涨停起点）后，再度放量(量比>1.5)收上22.0 → 补货非出货 |
| 白酒板块（000568/600702/600809） | 全55岁衰竭减速，000568仍下降趋势 | **无战法匹配**（衰竭段不是建仓段） | 不适用——鱼尾段禁用三买点 |
| 半导体/元器件 | 巨量普跌、分位0%、无承接证据 | **不接刀** | 唯一转观察条件：缩量止跌(量比<0.8且不创新低) + 龙头率先60分钟放量拉回 |
**环境仓位档：0成操作仓**（闸门关，只记录不动钱）。闸门开的条件=深成指近3日不再创收盘新低（不破10984.16）+ 止跌日量能较前一日放大。
---
## ③ 证伪（各配可核对条件）
**主线假设「无主线+恐慌退潮」** — 若深成指收盘跌破10984.16 → 恐慌延续，判断兑现；若深成指3日内止跌+放量而我仍回避 → **回避过度，我错了**。
**白酒「防御轮动非主线」** — 若深成指继续下跌期间白酒日板块成交额突破**500亿**且均值连续3日>+1% → 不是避险是主线切换，**我错了**；若明日白酒高开低走且均值收负 → 一日游确认，兑现。
**600285「只观察」** — 跌破20.0（涨停被完全回吐）或连续2日缩量阴跌（量比<0.8且收盘走低）→ 涨停一日游，观察取消；若明日放巨量(量比>4)滞涨/长上影 → 高位分歧转派发，同取消。
**半导体「不接刀」** — 若5日内缩量止跌后放量(量比>1.5)收复10-30跌幅一半以上 → **"出逃延续"判断错了**，转观察反弹；若继续放量创新低 → 兑现。
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**落账**：judgment_ledger 已写4条（source=盘中-1030主线，date=2026-10-30），id 3285(回避·大盘)/3286(中性·白酒)/3287(中性·600285)/3288(回避·半导体)，回读验证4条全部带动作预测trigger+falsify+reason，无空件。3285的证伪线已从"前低"精确修正为"10-30收盘10984.16"（原表述不可核对）。未触碰 judgments_rejected。