{
  "date": "2026-09-21",
  "source": "无为老师复盘PDF",
  "predictions": [
    {
      "id": "W20260921_01",
      "claim": "医药方向明天可能走分歧",
      "type": "short_term",
      "verify_by": "2026-09-22",
      "metric": "创新药ETF(159992)和恒瑞医药(600276)9/22涨跌",
      "logic": "普涨后次日分歧是常态，需观察资金是否从医药流出",
      "status": "pending",
      "result": null,
      "analysis": null
    },
    {
      "id": "W20260921_02",
      "claim": "光纤光缆和PCB依然很强，已在里面的就守",
      "type": "short_term",
      "verify_by": "2026-09-22",
      "metric": "亨通光电(600487)和光迅科技(002281)9/22走势",
      "logic": "机构资金来的早、沉淀多，主线持续性强",
      "status": "pending",
      "result": null,
      "analysis": null
    },
    {
      "id": "W20260921_03",
      "claim": "半导体材料/设备、光模块预期比光纤光缆弱",
      "type": "short_term",
      "verify_by": "2026-09-22",
      "metric": "中芯国际(688981)等半导体标的 vs 亨通光电(600487)",
      "logic": "机构介入晚、体量少 → 弹性弱",
      "status": "pending",
      "result": null,
      "analysis": null
    },
    {
      "id": "W20260921_04",
      "claim": "马上中秋国庆，机构不怎么动，炒作更多是小机构和散户",
      "type": "macro_risk",
      "verify_by": "2026-09-22_to_2026-09-30",
      "metric": "大盘成交额变化、机构重仓股表现",
      "logic": "节前效应 → 资金收缩 → 波动加大但趋势不延续",
      "status": "pending",
      "result": null,
      "analysis": null
    },
    {
      "id": "W20260921_05",
      "claim": "持仓主线以守为主，不追高加仓，注意30分钟/日线离场信号",
      "type": "strategy",
      "verify_by": "ongoing",
      "metric": "持仓标的是否跌破30分钟/日线关键支撑",
      "logic": "这是操作纪律而非预测，但可检验：如果离场信号出现他是否真的执行",
      "status": "pending",
      "result": null,
      "analysis": null
    }
  ],
  "claims_to_verify": [
    {
      "claim": "9/21全线高开",
      "data_result": "✅ 三指数均高开(上证3920→3950, 深成指13716→13730, 创业板3404→3400)",
      "verdict": "confirmed"
    },
    {
      "claim": "医药方向全线拉升",
      "data_result": "⚠️ 分化：恒瑞+4.85%，但云南白药+0.08%、爱尔眼科+0.87%",
      "verdict": "partially_confirmed",
      "note": "是创新药/服务领涨，非医药全线"
    },
    {
      "claim": "光纤光缆和PCB依然很强",
      "data_result": "⚠️ 分化：亨通+3.25%，但光迅-0.84%",
      "verdict": "partially_confirmed",
      "note": "亨通持续强，光迅高位回调"
    },
    {
      "claim": "半导体材料/设备弱",
      "data_result": "需进一步验证（中芯9/21数据待拉取）",
      "verdict": "unverified"
    }
  ]
}