{
  "ledger_date": "2026-10-08",
  "source": "涛哥节后早盘直播 2026-10-08 00:02-51min",
  "predictions": [
    {
      "id": "T20261008_01",
      "claim": "节后首日深成指高开0.5~1%为合理区间（纳指+2.71%带动但无机构积极做多）",
      "type": "intraday",
      "verify_by": "2026-10-08 09:30",
      "metric": "399001.SZ 开盘涨幅%落在[0.5,1.0]",
      "logic": "外围温和+无利好无建仓=中性比价",
      "status": "verified",
      "result": {
        "open": 12896.45,
        "pre_close": 12887.6198,
        "open_pct": 0.069,
        "in_range": [
          0.5,
          1.0
        ],
        "verified_at": "2026-10-08 09:33",
        "source": "sina sz399001 scale=1 首根bar open + data_hub 20260930 close"
      },
      "verdict": "miss",
      "verdict_note": "开盘+0.07%，远低于[0.5,1.0]下限 → 否（涛哥高开幅度区间未兑现，近平开）"
    },
    {
      "id": "T20261008_02",
      "claim": "节后首日竞价额正常放大至90~100亿；>120亿且高开>1%=机构积极（概率偏小）；低开放量=不舒服",
      "type": "intraday",
      "verify_by": "2026-10-08 09:30",
      "metric": "深成指集合竞价成交额（口径现场校准：sina首根bar含首分钟，绝对值先对照行情软件竞价额）",
      "logic": "节前基线约80亿(涛哥口播)→节后首日正常放大",
      "status": "verified",
      "result": {
        "first_bar_0931_amount_yi": 168.75,
        "baseline_20260929_yi": 129.86,
        "baseline_20260930_yi": 137.97,
        "vs_0929_pct": 29.9,
        "vs_0930_pct": 22.3,
        "amplified": true,
        "open_pct": 0.069,
        "gt120_and_open_gt1": false,
        "verified_at": "2026-10-08 09:33",
        "source": "sina sz399001 scale=1 首根bar(09:31,含首分钟)"
      },
      "verdict": "hit_partial",
      "note": "口径风险：我方数据源首根bar 9/29=130亿 9/30=138亿 与涛哥80亿不一致，绝对值判分前必须校准",
      "verdict_note": "方向命中：首根168.75亿 > 130亿基线(+30.0% vs 9/29, +22.3% vs 9/30)=明显放大；但90~100亿绝对口径未校准(我方口径含首分钟，涛哥口播约80亿)，故标partial。子条件「>120亿且高开>1%」不成立(开+0.07%)→非机构积极型放量。"
    },
    {
      "id": "T20261008_03",
      "claim": "医疗服务今日独立走强 vs 被大盘带下 各50%",
      "type": "intraday",
      "verify_by": "2026-10-08 15:00",
      "metric": "881175.TI 相对399001超额",
      "status": "skipped",
      "result": null,
      "verdict": null,
      "note": "回避型预测（两头下注），不计分，仅记录"
    },
    {
      "id": "T20261008_04",
      "claim": "深成指下杀动能太强→短期反弹后大概率再重心下移吸筹，10/15前难摆脱磨底（中期）",
      "type": "short_term",
      "verify_by": "2026-10-15",
      "metric": "399001.SZ 10/9-10/15 期间是否出现反弹后收盘低于12888前低",
      "logic": "对主力最有利路径=反弹→再下移低位收筹（意图归因，存在V型反转反例风险）",
      "status": "pending",
      "result": null,
      "verdict": null,
      "falsify": "若10/15前收盘站上MA5且不回踩12888 → 证伪"
    },
    {
      "id": "T20261008_05",
      "claim": "光纤光缆/半导体调整未结束：无『跌不动+场外回流』双信号前不补仓；5日内若无回流则维持",
      "type": "short_term",
      "verify_by": "2026-10-15",
      "metric": "通信设备/半导体板块相对深成指 + 板块量价异动",
      "status": "pending",
      "result": null,
      "verdict": null
    },
    {
      "id": "T20261008_06",
      "claim": "创新药今日分化：恒瑞系（26亿BD利好）强于艾力斯系（三期折翼利空）",
      "type": "intraday",
      "verify_by": "2026-10-08 15:00",
      "metric": "恒瑞医药(600276) vs 艾力斯(688578) 当日涨跌幅差",
      "status": "pending",
      "result": null,
      "verdict": null
    },
    {
      "id": "T20261008_07",
      "claim": "[独立先验] 地量(9/30全天3573亿)+强下杀动能下，若今日竞价不显著放大，高开低走概率>中性",
      "type": "intraday",
      "verify_by": "2026-10-08 15:00",
      "metric": "399001.SZ 高开后收盘 vs 开盘（收<开=高开低走）",
      "logic": "地量承接弱+下杀未充分释放",
      "status": "pending",
      "result": null,
      "verdict": null
    }
  ],
  "verify_plan": "T1/T2→09:28一次性cron；T3/T6/T7→当日15:05收盘扫描对照；T4/T5→10/15复盘日人工对照台账",
  "verify_note_20261008_am": "T1/T2 已于2026-10-08 09:33一次性验证；T3/T6/T7→15:05收盘扫描；T4/T5→10/15复盘"
}