{
 "ledger_date": "2026-10-09",
 "source": "涛哥10/9晨间直播转写 export_1791504460073.md（前33分钟股市段；33分钟后为无关办公闲聊已排除）",
 "predictions": [
  {
   "id": "T20261009_01",
   "claim": "比价关系：隔夜费半-3.39% → 今日深成指低开1.5~2.0%（听众给1.0~1.2他评『比较悲观』，他给1.5到两个百分点）",
   "type": "intraday",
   "verify_by": "2026-10-09 09:31",
   "metric": "399001.SZ 今日open_pct = (open/pre_close-1)*100 落在[-2.0,-1.5]",
   "logic": "费半-3.39/AI硬件全线跌+A股已先跌 → 比价低开；他明确站1.5~2.0区间",
   "status": "verified",
   "result": {
    "open_pct": -0.506,
    "open": 12557.015,
    "pre_close": 12620.897,
    "verified_at": "2026-10-09 09:37",
    "data_source": "data_hub.get_realtime_daily(sina_realtime) + 腾讯qt.gtimg.cn/sz399001 双源交叉验证；注意：taoge_open_check.py 的日线源 get_daily 尚未生成20261009行(today=null)，故改用实时源"
   },
   "verdict": "miss",
   "verdict_note": "实际仅低开0.51%，低于其预测区间1.5~2.0%（也低于听众的1.0~1.2%），比价关系方向对（低开）但幅度显著估大"
  },
  {
   "id": "T20261009_02",
   "claim": "今日两条件（下跌动能衰竭 / 巨额增量回流）仍不满足 → 继续『等』，不构成见底日",
   "type": "daily",
   "verify_by": "2026-10-09 15:05",
   "metric": "证伪=深成指今日low > 10/8低点12540.73 且 今日vol > 10/8的167883803手（=不创新低+放量，我方分析闸门两条件同时满足）；任一不满足=未证伪",
   "logic": "他晨间明确『两个都没有，继续等』；两条件是他的原话口径，与分析闸门同构",
   "status": "verified",
   "result": {
    "low": 12278.784,
    "low_ref_1008": 12540.7339,
    "vol": 632492332,
    "vol_ref_1008": 532979165,
    "vol_caliber": "手·同源对比（新浪日K 10/8=53,297,916,545股 → 今日实时63,249,233,250股，+18.7%；腾讯kline两日一致±0.04%）。注意：data_hub口径REF=167,883,803为成分股口径且今日行未生成，故条件B按同源外部口径判定",
    "condA_no_new_low": false,
    "condB_volume_up": true,
    "verified_at": "2026-10-09 15:12",
    "data_source": "taoge_open_check.py today=null（data_hub日线源尚未生成20261009行）→ 改用实时源三重交叉验证：data_hub.get_daily_with_realtime + hq.sinajs.cn/sz399001 + qt.gtimg.cn/sz399001（今日低点三源一致=12278.78，收盘12641.86/+0.17%）"
   },
   "verdict": "未证伪",
   "verdict_note": "今日盘中创新低12278.78<10/8低点12540.73，条件A（不创新低）不成立，两条件未同时满足（结论对条件B口径不敏感），涛哥『继续等』当日成立"
  }
 ],
 "cross_check_pending": [
  "F1候选（龙头背离→板块无反转）: 今日电池板块走势为第一证伪窗口（见 20261009_无为复盘1008数据验证.md）"
 ]
}